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New GOvernment and Electricity Pakistan

This work presents the dilemma of shortfall in the supply of electrical energy that is currently
faced by Pakistan. The root cause of this shortage in the supply of energy is mentioned in this
work. An abridged history as well as the present situation of the electricity production and its
consumption in the country is discussed. The electricity generation potential of Pakistan in
different sectors to produce energy is viewed. The importance of utilization of coal resources
and water resources for the production of electric power is discussed. Pakistan has been
blessed with rich and vast renewable energy (RE) resources. These renewable energy resources
can play effective and considerable role in contributing towards energy security and energy
independence of the country. Some predictions are made on the basis of empirical data and
preliminary observations. An estimated forecast of demand and supply of electricity for the next
twenty years is also projected in this article.
Key Words: Electrical Power energy, energy crisis, electricity generation, renewable
energy resources
1. ITRODUCTION
The electricity Pakistan is presently facing a serious energy crisis. Despite strong
economic growth during the past decade and consequent rising demand for energy, no
worthwhile steps have been taken to install new capacity for generation of the required
energy sources. Now, the demand exceeds supply and hence "load-shedding" is a
common phenomenon through frequent power shutdowns. Pakistan needs about
14000-15000MW electricity per day, and the demand is likely to rise to approximately
20,000 MW per day by 2010. Presently, it can produce about 11, 500 MW per day and
thus there is a shortfall of about 3000-4000MW per day. This shortage is badly
affecting industry, commerce and daily life of people.
All possible measures need to be adopted, i.e., to conserve energy at all levels, and
use all available sources to enhance production of energy. It seems that the
government is considering importing energy from Iran and Central Asian Republics and
using indigenous sources, such as, hydel, coal, waste, wind, and solar power, as well
as other alternate and renewable energy sources, besides nuclear power plants for
production of energy. Needless to say that if the country wishes to continue its
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economic development and improve the quality of life of its people, it has to make
serious efforts towards framing a coherent energy policy.
Energy crisis is the most burning issue that is facing by the whole world now a days. It
is the one of the basic requirement of economic development and an adequate
standard for living. The demand in the electrical energy demands in a country is
proportional to the growth in the population. If this demand is not met with the supply,
energy crisis is produced.Pakistan has been facing an unprecedented energy crisis
since last many years. This problem becomes more severe in summer and as a result
shortage of electricity is faced 8 to 10 houres in urban areas while 16 to 18 hours in
rural areas. The above mentioned circumstances are due to lake of management and
planning. Any power system has three major parts- generation system, Transmission
System and Distribution System.
The main technical causes of the shortfall in the ability of energy crisis in Pakistan are
1. Insufficient installed generating capacity
2. Transmission system unable to transmit the load imposed
3. Grid stations and related equipment unable to carry the load imposed
4. Substantial distribution system of power supply
The major management related causes of the crisis are:
1. Faulty management information system
2 Failure of forecast and future planning
3 No new transmission / distribution networks and grid stations
2.1 HISTORICAL BACHGROUND
At the time of independence in 1947, Pakistan inherited 60MW of power generation
capability for a population of 31.5 million, yielding 4.5 units per capita consumption.
The Government of Pakistan in 1952 by acquiring majority shareholding took control of
the Karachi Electric Supply Company (KESC) engaged in generation, transmission and
distribution of electric energy to the industrial, commercial, agricultural and residential
consumers of the metropolitan city of Karachi and its suburbs.
In 1958, Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) was created as a semiautonomous
body for the purpose of coordinating and giving a unified direction to the
development of schemes in water and power sectors, which were previously being
dealt with by the respective electricity and irrigation department of the provinces.
In 1959, the generation capacity had increased to 119 MW and by that time the country
had entered the phase of development, which required a dependable and solid
infrastructure, electricity being its most significant part. The task of power development
was undertaken by WAPDA for executing a number of hydel and thermal generation
projects, a transmission network and a distribution system, which could sustain the
load of the rapidly increasing demand of electricity.
After the first five years of its operation by 1964-65, the electricity generation capability
rose to 636 MW from 119 MW in 1959, and power generation to about 2,500 MKWH
from 781 MKWH. At the inception of WAPDA, the number of electrified villages in the
country was 609 which were increased to 1882 villages (688,000 consumers) by the
year 1965. The rapid progress witnessed a new life to the social, technical and
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economic structures of the country. Mechanized agriculture started, industrialization
picked up and general living standards improved.
The task of accelerating the pace of power development picked up speed and by the
year 1970, the generating capability rose from 636 MW to 1331 MW with installation of
a number of thermal and hydel power units. In the year 1980 the system capacity
touched 3,000 MW which rapidly rose to over 7,000 MW in 1990-91.
However, electricity consumption in Pakistan has been growing at a higher pace
compared to economic growth due to the increasing urbanization, industrialization and
rural electrification. From 1970 to the early 1990s, the supply of electricity was unable
to keep pace with demand that was growing consistently at 9-10% per annum. In the
early 1990s, the peak demand exceeded supply capability by about 15-25%,
necessitating load shedding of about 1,500 - 2,000 MW. On the demand side, there
was a weak link between the electricity price and demand, which failed to manage the
demand. On the supply side, the main reason behind this capacity shortage was the
inability of the public budget to meet the high investment requirement of the power
sector, despite the allocation of a high share to this sector. During the 1990s, the
economic growth rate of Pakistan declined to a level of 4-5% per annum from a level of
6% per annum in the 1980s.
In order to eliminate power shortage/load shedding in the minimum possible time, the
Government constituted an Energy Task Force in 1993 to devise a consolidated and
comprehensive policy for revamping the energy sector. On the recommendations of
the Energy Task Force, the Government announced a "Policy Framework and
Package of Incentives for Private Sector Power Generation Projects" in March 1994 for
a large scale induction of private sector in power development. The said policy offered
a fix levelized tariff of USD 5.57/kWh to the prospective investors (USD 6.1/kWh
average for 1-10 years) and a number of other incentives to attract foreign investment
in the power sector.
The Power Policy 1994 helped in overcoming load shedding in the country. Rather, it
resulted in surplus power as the actual load growth was much less than that projected
and the projects were contracted beyond requirement. Moreover the Policy attracted
only thermal projects resulting in reversal of the hydel / thermal generation mix.
In the year 2000, the vertical disintegration of WAPDA started as part of the country's
new electricity market restructuring and liberalization program. Since then WAPDA has
been broken down into fourteen separate units: four thermal power generating
companies, nine distribution companies and a transmission and distribution company.
In November 2005, the Government of Pakistan privatized (74.35%) the Karachi
Electric supply Company (KESC). At present, KESC and WAPDA operate their own
networks and are interconnected through 220 KV double circuit transmission lines and
can supply power to each other.
On June 30' 2008, the total generation capacity from WAPDA's own hydel and thermal
sources plus generation from two nuclear power plants, KESC and Independent Power
Procedures (IPPs) stood at 19,420 MW.
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2.2 Present Situation of Crisis
At Present, less then 45% of Pakistan's population has no access to electricity. The
nation is currently facing a 5000 MW power supply shortage - the most severe energy
crisis to ever hit the country [3]. The occurrence of prolonged and frequent power
outages has had a negative impact on industry operation, the economy and the
livelihood of citizens in general. While the energy shortage continues to grow,
abundant indigenous sustainable energy resources such as wind, solar and biomass
remain virtually untapped[15]. The government attempted to promote the adoption of
renewable energy technologies (RETs) in 2006 by implementing its first renewable
energy policy. However, this policy has had limited success and faces a number of
challenges. These policy challenges must be clearly identified and addressed in order
to pave the way forward for a sustainable energy future in Pakistan.
Currently, approximately 60% of power generation in Pakistan is derived from fossil
fuels (primarily oil and gas) followed by hydroelectricity (35%) and nuclear energy
(2.84%). Figure 1 illustrates the shares of electricity generation by fuel type in 2011.
As it can be observed from the figure, hydro is the only sustainable energy resource
which Pakistan employs for large-scale power generation.
The total generation of electricity by different sectors in Pakistan is given in table1. A
forecast of demand and generation for years 2009 –2030 is given in the table 2. a
careful examination of table 2& 3 shows that although Pakistan's installed generating
capacity will increase, but the shortfall will continue to exist[2]. The government must
take serious steps to handle this situation.
3 Electricity Generation
The electricity production sector in Pakistan is a miscellaneous industry of hydro,
thermal and nuclear power plants. The country meets its energy requirement around
41% by indigenous gas, 19% by oil, and 37% by hydro electricity. Coal and nuclear
contribution to energy supply is limited to 0.16% and 2.84% respectively with a vast
potential for growth.
3.1 Hydel Generation
As a effect of partition of the Indo-Pakistan Sub-Continent in 1947, India and Pakistan
became two autonomous states. Hydel generation capacity of only 10.7 MW (9.6 MW -
Malakand Power Station & 1.1 MW - Renala Power Station) existed in the territory of
Pakistan. With the passage of time, new hydel power projects of small and medium
capacities were commissioned including the first water storage dam and power house
at Warsak due to which country's hydel capability rose to about 267 MW up till 1963.
In the year 1967 & 1977, Mangla Dam on Jhelum River and Tarbela Dam on Indus
River having the provision of power generation were commissioned respectively.
However, their capacities were subsequently extended in different phases.
Pakistan has a huge potential to produce electric power from hydro-electric power
plants. In table 5 presents a view of electric power generation with power plants whose
feasibility study has been completed or is under process. Construction of all these
plants gives almost 6444 MW. This easily meets the electrical energy requirement of
Pakistan for next 20-25 years. The hydro-electric power has a great potential and
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these plants can give low cost electricity. As they are run of river plants, they can be
easily installed with minimum cost and in short time.
The seasonal variations of reservoir levels and consequent reduction in Power outputs
of storage type hydel projects in Pakistan are very pronounced. Tarbela with maximum
head of 450 feet experiences variation of 230 feet while Mangla has 162 feet variation
against the maximum head of 360 feet. The lean flow period of Tarbela reservoir is
from November to June when the Capability reduces to as low as about 1,350 MW
against the maximum of 3,692 MW during high head period i.e. August to September
(15% permissible overloading on Units 1~10). Lean flow period of Mangla reservoir is
observed from October to March when the minimum generating capability is 500 MW.
The capability rises to as high as 1,150 MW during 'high head' period (15% permissible
overloading).
In all, WAPDA's hydel generating capability varies between the two extremities of
2,414 MW and 6,746.0 MW over the cycle of a year. WAPDA is carrying out feasibility
studies and engineering designs for various hydropower projects with accumulative
generation capacity of more than 25,000 MW. Most of these studies are at an advance
stage of completion. After the completion of these projects the installed capacity would
rise to around 42,000 MW by the end of the year 2020. Pakistan has been blessed with
ample water resources but could store only 13% of the annual flow of its rivers. The
statistics warrant construction of number of reservoirs to enhance availability of water
which stands at 1,070 cubic meters per capita.The hydropower potential in Pakistan is
over 100,000 MW with identified sites of 55,000 MW. Currently, studies under way
include Diamer Basha (4,500 MW), Bunji (5,400 MW) and Kohala (1,100 MW) amongst
many others. As mentioned previously, hydro is the only sustainable energy resource
which Pakistan has been effectively employed for large-scale power generation.
Currently, Pakistan has an installed hydropower capacity of approximately 6.6 GW.
This figure is only 16% of the total hydropower potential in Pakistan, estimated to be
about 41.5 GW [15].
3.2. Thermal Generation
Pakistan with 185 billion tons of coal reserves, the fourth largest in the world, is under
utilizing this resource. In the overall energy mix, the share of coal power is only 7% as
compared to world average of 40%[3]. Coal is the main source for producing cheaper
electricity and the Government has decided to enhance the share of coal in the overall
energy mix of upto18% by 2030. The Government is striving hard to minimize the gap
between consumption and generation of electricity at affordable rate.Pakistan has the
4th largest coal reserve in the World, amounting to approximatel185.175 billion tones.
Thar has largest reserve in the country that is approximatey 75.5 billion tones. Pakistan
can generate more than 100,000 MW of electricity for next 30 years if it uses all coal
available to it. Bulk of Pakistan's power generation is based on thermal resources
mainly furnace oil and natural gas as fuel; coal is almost non-existent. The total
installed capacity of thermal power plants in the country as on June 30' 2008 was
12,478 MW. It is learnt through the sources of Pakistan Electric Power Company
(PEPCO) that an investment of around US$ 2 billion is expected in power sector
through Rental Power Projects (RPPs) and an additional electricity of 1,675 MW will be
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added in the system by 2009-10 when nine rental power projects will start generation.
At present Pakistan generates only 0.79% of its total electricity from coal [3]. Coal
contributes approximately 40% of the total global primary energy demand
3.3 Nuclear Power Generation
Pakistan is among the 30 nations in the world, which have reposed confidence in
Nuclear Power Plants. The global installed capacity of Nuclear Power Plants stood at
375,000 MW at the end of 2010, based on 442 Nuclear Power Plants. Since the first
Nuclear Power Plant was installed in 1950, tremendous progress has been achieved in
the field of Nuclear Power Generation. There has been substantial improvement in the
efficiency of Nuclear Power Plants and their availability factor has also increased,
which means reduced downtime for maintenance. These improvements have
encouraged a number of Asian nations to go for Nuclear Energy in a big way. Japan
and South Korea were already among the leading nations producing nuclear electricity.
In recent years China and India have made huge investments in Nuclear Power Plants.
China presently has 11 Nuclear Power Plants of total 9000 MW capacity, while the
total installed capacity of 20 Nuclear Power Plants in India has reached 4780 MW.
India has also recently commissioned a locally increase the installed capacity of its
Nuclear Power Plants to 8800 MW by 2020 by installing 10 new Nuclear Power Plants.
Pakistan is presently importing fuel for the developed nuclear power reactor of 220 MW
capacity. Pakistan has also drawn up plans to Nuclear Power plants from China. In
order to make the country self-sufficient in nuclear fuel,a facility is being developed,
which will use locally available Uranium ore to produce 350 tons of nuclear fuel
annually starting from 2015. To take care of the nuclear waste generated by the
Nuclear Plants, Waste Management Centers are being developed at Karachi and
Chashma, and a Repository for low and intermediate level waste is expected to be
commissioned by 2015
4. Renewable Energy
Pakistan has abundant available and unlimited renewable energy (RE) resources,
which if tapped effectively can play a considerable role in contributing towards energy
security and energy independence of the country. In May 2003, Alternative Energy
Development Board – AEDB was established to act as a central agency for
development, promotion and facilitation of renewable energy technologies, formulation
of plans, policies and development of technological base for manufacturing of
renewable energy equipment in Pakistan. The Government of Pakistan has tasked the
AEDB to ensure 5% of total national power generation capacity to be generated
through renewable energy technologies by the year 2030. In addition, under the
remote village electrification program, AEDB has been directed to electrify 7,874
remote villages in Sindh and Balochistan provinces through renewable energy
technologies. At present, total Renewable Energy produced in the country accounts at
40MW which is about 0.21% of total installed generation capacity of all sorts. America,
Canada and China have invested large sums of money into research and development
in order to obtain maximum energy from wind. Wind power is now the fastest-growing
energy source worldwide. Total worldwide production of electrical energy from wind is
around 30000MW. Germany, with over 12,000 megawatts of wind power at the end of
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2002, leads the world in generating capacity. Spain and the United States, at 4,800
and 4,700 megawatts, are second and third. Many predict that, with the development
of more efficient wind turbines, wind energy will provide an increasingly large
proportion of electrical production in the U.S. Tiny Denmark is fourth with 2,900
megawatts, and India is fifth with 1,700 megawatts. Although a score of countries now
generate electricity from wind, a second wave of major players is coming onto the field,
including the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Brazil, and China. However, land clearing
for vast "wind farms" may cause concern to environmentalists. The investment in
renewable, 50 MW wind energy project has been deployed in the Sindh region to date
- that, too, with limited success (Daily Times, PM Inaugurates Pakistan's First Wind
Power Project 2009).
The potential for renewable energy technologies to bridge the gap between energy
supply and demand in Pakistan is significant. Renewable energy projects have the
potential to improve energy security, provide socioeconomic benefits, reduce local
pollution and mitigate climate change. Further, due to the decentralized nature of
renewable energy projects, they have the potential to provide electricity to remote and
rural areas, thereby helping to alleviate poverty and reducing the need to collect and
burn biomass fuel [17].
Solar, wind, biomass and hydro energy resources are widespread and abundant in
Pakistan. The potential for each of these energy resources to help meet energy needs
will be discussed below.
4.1 Solar Energy
Pakistan lies about 15.5x1014 kWh of in a region of high solar irradiance; as such, it is
ideally suited for solar energy projects. Pakistan receives solar irradiance each year
with most regions receiving approximately 8 to 10 sunlight hours per day. The installed
capacity of solar photovoltaic power is estimated to be 1600 GW per year, providing
approximately 3.5 PWh of electricity (a figure approximately 41 times that of current
power generation in the country[15].
4.2 Wind Energy
Pakistan has high potential of renewable energy sources. A very large part of the rural
population does not have the facility of electricity because they are either too remote or
it is found too expensive to connect their villages to the national grid station. Pakistan
being in the sunny belt is ideally located to take advantage of solar energy. This energy
sources is widely distributed and abundantly available in the country. During last 15
years Pakistan has shown quite encouraging progress in the use of photovoltaic cells.
Currently electrical power derived from solar energy is being used is being used in
some public parks. These include Khalid bin Waleed Park in Peshawar and the Race
Course Park in Rawalpindi. The Public Health department has installed solar water
pump for drinking purposes in some parts of the country. Both public and private sector
are playing their role in up grading of photovoltaic system in the country. If this
technology is used in large scale commercial production of electricity the problem of
energy shortage can be substantially reduce. Wind energy has also been shown to
have strong technical potential in Pakistan, particularly in the southern regions of Sindh
and Balochistan. Pakistan has approximately 1000 km of coastline with steady average
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wind speeds ranging between 5-7 m/s. The projected installed capacity for wind energy
projects is estimated at 122.6 GW per year, providing about 212 TW of electricity
4.3 Biomass Energy
The availability of biomass in Pakistan is also widespread. Approximately 50 000
tonnes of solid waste, 225 000 tonnes of crop residue and over 1 million tonnes of
animal manure are produced 3 daily. It is estimated that the potential production of
biogas from livestock residue is 8.8 to 17.2 billion cubic meters of gas per year
(equivalent to 55 to 106 TWh of energy). Additionally, the annual electricity production
from bagasse (the fibrous residue remaining after sugarcane or sorghum processing)
is estimated at 5700 GWh; this figure is about 6.6% of Pakistan's current power
generation level[15]
Undoubtedly, renewable energy resources in Pakistan are widespread and present
significant technical potential to meet energy needs. This begs the question then, if the
potential for renewable energy resources in Pakistan is so great, why has there been
such little development in this field? The technical potential and availability of
renewable energy resources alone provides little indication about the success of
renewable energy project development in a country. For instance, Pakistan has a
greater technical potential for wind energy projects compared to its neighbor, India, yet
India has the fourth largest installed capacity of wind power in the world[7-13]. Indeed,
no matter how much technical potential exists, it is of little use unless an effective
policy bolsters development. To this end, Pakistan instituted its first renewable energy
policy in 2006. However, this policy has stimulated limited growth since its
implementation. The slow uptake of renewable energy technologies can be attributed
to numerous factors, ranging from a lack of infrastructure to poor competition with
conventional power generation. In order to pave the way forward for a sustainable
energy future in Pakistan, the challenges which energy policies face must be
systematically identified and addressed. This paper intends to discuss policy strengths
and challenges and to provide insight into how Pakistan can move forward towards a
sustainable energy future.
Conclusion
Pakistan has struggled to resolve its energy shortage problems for decades. As the
country is now facing an unprecedented energy crisis the drive to find effective longterm
energysolutions is stronger now than ever before. Renewable energy resources
such as wind and solar energy are abundant in Pakistan and show significant technical
potential to meet energy needs; however, the development of renewable energy power
projects is hindered by social, economic, technical, institutional and informational
barriers. The 2006 renewable energy policy makes important steps towards
encouraging RET deployment, but several policy challenges remain to be addressed.
The answer to strengthening the presence of renewable energy technologies in
Pakistan does not lie in any one solution to these challenges; rather, a holistic
approach must be employed. A number of approaches have been discussed to
address the roadblocks which RETs face. The government of Pakistan must take bold
steps towards restructuring energy policy in order to increase energy security and
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move towards a sustainable energy future. Primarily, policies should focus on bridging
the competitive gap between RETs and fossil fuels through measures such as subsidy
transfers, feed-in tariffs and accounting for negative and positive externalities. Of
course, increasing the competitiveness of RETs alone is not sufficient; issues such as
poor infrastructure, financing and technology access must also be addressed.
However, the biggest challenge lies in initially stimulating growth in renewable energy.
Upon addressing the most significant challenges facing RETs, market penetration will
naturally develop and the support for addressing further RET challenges will ensue.
The passage way towards a sustainable energy future in Pakistan is by no means
simple, but a solution certainly exists. Although a number of approaches have been
presented to encourage the growth of renewable energy in Pakistan, all of these
solutions will undoubtedly require significant effort and dedication on behalf of the
government. Pakistan must consider the long-term social, economic and environmental
benefits of renewable energy power generation for its people. Investing in 20
sustainable energy technologies today will pave the road towards a secure energy
future for tomorrow.
AKNOLDGEMENT
The authors are grateful to Mr.Nazer Hussian, Mr. Sikander Saneen, Mr. M.Afzal and
Mr. Talat Mehmood for their help in the presentation of this work.
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Table 1. Total capacity of electric power generation of Pakistan in 2009.
PUBLIC
SECTOR
MW %age
WAPDA 6444 33
GENCOs 4834 25
PAEC 462 2
Sub-total 11740 60
PRIVATE
SECTOR
IPPs 6185 31
KESC 1756 9
Sub-Total 7941 40
G.Total 19681 100
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Table 2 Historical Peak Demand 2002-2007
Table 3 Forecast of Demand form 2009-2030 (as April 2011)
Year WAPDA
MW
G.Rate
KESC
MW
G.Rate
Country
MW
G.Rate
2001-02 10109
40.02%
1885
1.34%
11875
3.59%
2002-03 10481
3.68%
1973
4.67%
12330
3.11%
2003-04 11078
5.70%
2073
5.07%
13021
6.35%
2004-05 12035
8.46%
2197
5.98%
14091
8.22%
2005-06 13212
9.78%
2223
1.18%
15282
8.45%
2006-07 15138
14.6%
2349
5.67%
17314
13.33%
2007-08 16484
8.9%
2673
13.85%
18983
9.7%
Fiscal Years 2009 2010 2015 2016 2020 2025 2030
Net
Dependable
Capability
MW 17008 19477 33028 36560 52909 76200 106565
Growth
Rate 9% 15% 9% 11% 10% 8% 8%
Peak
Demand
MW 20594 24474 36217 40555 54359 80566 113695
Growth
Rate
7% 9% 8% 8% 9% 8% 7%
Surplus/
Deficits
-3586 -2876 324 1147 4066 4031 5087
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Table 4 Pakistan's Total Power Potential
Table 5 Run of River Projects with their Feasibility Status
Station/Projects Capacity
(MW)
Hydro-electric Power Station in
Operation
6596
Under Implements 1965
Chasnupp-2 300
Feasibility Study Completed
(i) Run Of River
(ii) Multipurpose
1780
8840
Feasibility Studies in Hand 10331
Projects Feasibility Studies
are to b Carried out
25000
Total 54711
Name of
Project
Capacity(MW) Feasibility
Status
Basho 28 Completed
Harpo 28 Completed
Phandar 80 Completed
Doyian 425 Completed
Naltr 32 Completed
Kohala 60 Completed
Gulpur 100 Completed
Kotli 100 Completed
Daral Khwar 35 Completed
Bunji 5400 In Hand
Dasu 3700 In Hand
Gabral 105 In Hand
Keyel Khwar 130 In Hand
Lawi 65 In Hand
Spat Gah
Lower
Scheme
545 In Hand
Chor Nullah
Lower
Scheme
386 In Hand
Total 10331
International Journal of Basic & Applied Sciences IJBAS-IJENS Vol: 11 No: 05 50
110505-9393 IJBAS-IJENS © October 2011 IJENS I J E N S
Table 6 Installed Power Generation Capacity (as on June 30' 2008)
Table 7 Electric Power Generation from Nuclear Power Plants (June 30' 2011)
Table 8 Renewable Energy Resources of Pakistan
TYPE MW %
Hydel - WAPDA 6480 33.30
Thermal - WAPDA 4900 25.20
Thermal KESC 1,756 9.02
Thermal IPPs 5,822 29.91
Nuclear 462 2.37
Others (renewable) - 0.20
Total 19,420 100.00
Break-up of nuclear generation capacity (MW)
Power stations
Capacity (MW)
Karachi Nuclear Power Plant (KANUPP) 137
Chashma Nuclear Power Plant-I (CHASNUPP-I)
Chashma Nuclear Power Plant-II (CHASNUPP-II)
325
313
Total 775
Wind 0. 346 Million MW
Solar 2.9 Million MW
Bagasse Cogeneration 1,800 MW
Waste to Power 500 MW
Mini & Small Hydel 2,000 MW
International Journal of Basic & Applied Sciences IJBAS-IJENS Vol: 11 No: 05 51
110505-9393 IJBAS-IJENS © October 2011 IJENS I J E N S
Fig. 1
International Journal of Basic & Applied Sciences IJBAS-IJENS Vol: 11 No: 05 52
110505-9393 IJBAS-IJENS © October 2011 IJENS I J E N S
Fig.2

Bijli bijli Electricity Pakistan New Government

Introduction
Pakistan's power generation has been marred by complex socio-political and economic issues over the past several years. We are a naturally blessed country, with immense potential if we choose to utilize water for power generation. We are already late. It is now time to move forward and explore other area's through which this crisis may be overcome.
In this report, we propose a comprehensive strategy discussing the use of the following power generation methods for Pakistan:
a)
Hydroelectric power
b)
Nuclear power
c)
Power generation based on Coal
d)
Green solutions for Pakistan (including solar, wind and tidal energy)
3. Power Generation Prospects
3.1 - Hydroelectric power:
Geographically, Pakistan has been blessed with river flows that are naturally supportive to electricity generation. Control and optimization of our water resources alone can contribute a great deal to our immediate power shortfall.
Currently, our hydroelectric power generation is from: Tarbela Dam (3000 MW), Mangla Dam (1000 MW), Warsak (245 MW) and Chashma (185 MW). We have had plans for more hydroelectric power generation stations in the pipeline for a long time but the actual implementation is always hindered and cornered by the socio-political conditions.
The development of the Kalabagh dam (3600 MW, with a gross storage capacity of 9.74 km3) and the Bhasha dam (4500 MW, with a storage capacity of 7.82 km3) would be a major breakthrough to containing our energy crisis.
Development in this sector requires time and patience. Pakistan, by 2015, should ideally have a hydroelectric power generation of 12000MW.
3.2 - Nuclear Energy
Today, Nuclear energy powers the world with approximately 15% of the total electricity produced. Pakistan, however, currently generates around 2.4% of its total electricity through its Nuclear power plants at Karachi and Chashma. The total generation capacity through nuclear power plants is roughly 425MW.
Development on an extension of the Chashma power plant, CHASNUPP-2, is in progress and is expected to be completed by the end of 2009. This will add another 325MW to Pakistan's energy-mix.
Nuclear energy has its share of advantages, for which Pakistan should put in concerted efforts to enhance nuclear power generation. It is a sustainable energy solution that also reduces carbon emission and suits Pakistan financially considering the fact that it will further reduce Pakistan's dependence on furnace oil and the costs associated with its imports. Handling of radioactive waste is the only major issue that arises, which may be a serious health hazard.
We believe Pakistan should enhance its power generation capabilities at Karachi (KANUPP) with a project similar to CHASNUPP-2 and to improve safety mechanisms at Karachi to make sure the reactor is allowed to operate to its full potential.
By the end of 2011, Pakistan should ideally have a Nuclear power generation capacity at around 1200MW.
3.3 - Coal Energy
Pakistan has one of the largest reserves of coal in the world. The Geological survey of Pakistan places Pakistan's coal reserves at 'Thar' as the fourth largest in the world. Pakistan's total coal reserves stand at approximately 184,575 million tones out of which Punjab and Baluchistan have reserves of 235 and 217 million tones respectively. Thar coal has the rest.
Pakistan, at present, produces approximately 0.2% of its total electricity through coal. Compare this to a global average of 40% electricity production through coal. India, our immediate neighbour, produces roughly 53% of its electricity through coal fired power plants. Pakistan's only coal fired power plant is at Lakhra with a power generation capacity of 30MW. It is indeed an alarming fact we need to wake up to and make most of what God has gifted to us.
Financially speaking, Pakistan also needs to cut down its dependency on oil and gas, to which coal is a fitting solution. Historically, the price of coal has generally been very stable as opposed to the price of oil and gas.
The coal mining sector, in general, is a neglected and underdeveloped area in Pakistan. The government needs to speed up and enhance the provision of basic infrastructure facilities, especially in the Thar region like roads, electricity, communication etc. to encourage investment in the exploration and development of coal projects.
With a consistent government policy, we can generate up to 5000MW of energy through coal.
4. Green solutions for Pakistan:
Renewable and greener sources of energy are being deployed throughout the world to minimize carbon emission and to lower costs associated with power generation. Let us discuss the options available to us in Pakistan.
4.1 - Solar Energy:
Pakistan is amongst those countries which receive a high level of solar radiation. Studies have shown that on average our country receives 19MW per square meter of solar energy.
Solar energy is not too expensive and its best use, for now, is in domestic applications such as water heating and for UPS (Uninterrupted Power Supply) systems. It is also beneficial for providing electricity to rural areas and far off villages where it is not feasible to connect them directly to the national grid.
Although it is not an absolute solution to the energy crisis we face today, it is a good source of alternative energy for reducing domestic dependence on the national grid. This will not only lower electricity bills, it will also release some load off the national grid.
4.2 - Wind Energy:
Wind energy is another environment friendly alternative source of energy. Pakistan has some 'wind-swept' corridors that are essential for generating power through wind energy. Extensive research and analysis of wind speeds, directions and corridors is important before investing in this sector.
The Government of Pakistan has set the 'Alternative Energy Development' board a target of generating 700MW of electricity through wind energy by the end of 2010 and around 9700MW by the end of 2030.
Independent Power Producers have set up wind farms on a small scale, possibly to assess the potential of wind energy in Pakistan, which is believed to be immense.
Pakistan's first major wind power plant deal has been signed by the Hyderabad electric supply company with a Turkish firm. The wind-farm will provide HESCO with 6MW electricity, powering almost 6900 homes.
We believe if the AEDB is able to achieve its target by producing 700MW of electricity through wind energy; it will be a trend setting breakthrough for Pakistan's energy woes.
4.3 - Tidal Energy:
Tidal energy is a form of hydropower that exploits the movement of water caused by tidal currents or the rise and fall in sea levels due to tides. Tidal energy is a relatively unexplored area in Pakistan.
As a first step, we need a thorough survery of the coastal areas of Pakistan to identify the best locations for setting up power plants for tidal power generation. We also need to encourage research and development activities in this area to exploit tidal energy.
From available data, the known natural advantages that Pakistan has for tidal energy development include a 170km creek system of the Indus delta, 2-5 meter high tides at Korangi creek and over 5 meters at Sir Creek.
The infrastructure setup for tidal power plants is expensive and improvements are still needed in the system for a cost effective solution to cater to Pakistan's requirements.
5. Transmission Losses
Transmission losses and a poor distribution system also account for Pakistan's energy crisis. The government and its responsible departments need to take firm action to control power theft and to improve the distribution system in general. The US department Energy (DoE) reports transmission losses of up to 30% in Pakistan.
Aging and overloading of the transmission system and power theft account for Pakistan's transmission problems. This issue must be addressed proactively by the government of Pakistan.
6. Conclusion & Recommendations
Vision 2010:
Based on our analysis of various power generation techniques, we suggest:
•
Development of hydro-electric power plants and large water reservoirs should begin immediately.
•
Wind power generation should reach 500MW and ideally 700MW (the goal that has been set for the AEDB by the Government of Pakistan).
•
Domestic applications of solar power should be publicized and encouraged.
•
Utilizing financial resources effectively to make sure Independent Power Producers and power plants based on oil operate to their maximum capacity.
•
Immediate steps should be taken to reduce to transmission losses and power theft.
Vision 2015:
Based on our analysis of various power generation techniques, we suggest:
•
Development of hydro-electric power plants and large water reservoirs should generate around 12000MW, almost doubling the current generation capacity.
•
Wind power generation should reach 1200MW. This speed of development in the wind energy sector will require a very serious effort from the government agencies, a firm resolve to enhance development and production capacity. Independent power production in this sector must be encouraged and supported.
•
30% of Pakistan's 'unpowered' rural areas should have electricity for basic use based on solar and wind resources.
•
Nuclear power generation by the year 2015 should reach 1500MW.
•
Coal resources should be put to effective use and rapid development of infrastructure and power plants should make sure Pakistan is able to generate up to 5000MW of electricity by the year 2015.
•
Pakistan's total generation capacity should increase, with 19700MW of electricity coming only from the hydro-electric, coal, nuclear and wind power plants that have been discussed in this document.
•
Dependence on oil/gas based power plants can be greatly reduced by increasing reliance on the methods mentioned here.
7. References
[1] Wikipedia.org
http://www.wikipedia.org
[2] Presentation on Tidal Energy by Majida Islam, http://www.slideshare.net/ieeepkhi/tidal-energy-by-majida-islam-presentation
[3] Geological Survey of Pakistan
http://www.gsp.gov.pk
[4] US Department of Energy, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Pakistan/Electricity.html
[5] ADB, Technical Assistance to the Govt. of Pakistan (on Transmission losses)
www.adb.org/Documents/TARs/PAK/tar-pak-37192.pdf

Bijli ka masla, Electricity crises in Pakistan

PAKISTAN: POWER CRISIS FEARED BY 2007
The country may plunge into energy crisis by the year 2007 due to rising electricity demand which enters into double digit figure following increasing sale of electrical and electronic appliances on lease finance, it is reliably learnt Thursday.
"The country may face energy crisis by the year 2007 following healthy growth of 13 per cent in electricity demand during the last quarter, which will erode surplus production in absence of commissioning of any new power generation project during this financial year," informed sources told The Nation.
As per Pakistan Economic Survey 2003-04, electricity consumption has increased by 8.6 per cent during first three-quarter of last fiscal year. However, a top level WAPDA official maintained that electricity demand surged up to 13 per cent during last quarter.
The survey said household sector has been the largest consumer of electricity accounting for 44.2 per cent of total electricity consumption followed by industries 31.1 per cent, agriculture 14.3 per cent, other government sector 7.4 per cent, commercial 5.5 per cent and street light 0.7 per cent.
Keeping in view the past trend and the future development, WAPDA has also revised its load forecast to eight per cent per annum as against previous estimates of five per cent on average. Even the revised load forecast has also failed all assessments due to which Authority has left no other option but to start load management this year, which may convert into scheduled load shedding over a period of two year, sources maintained.
The country needs a quantum jump in electricity generation in medium-term scenario to revert the possibilities of load shedding in future due to shrinking gap between demand and supply of electricity at peak hours.
According to an official report, the gap between firm supply and peak hours demand has already been shrunk to three digit (440 MW) during this fiscal and will slip into negative columns next year (-441 MW) and further intensify to (-1,457 MW) during the financial year 2006-07.
The report maintained that the difference between firm supply and peak demand is estimated at 5,529 MW by the year 2009-10 when firm electricity supply will stand at 15,055 MW against peak demand of 20,584 MW.
Chairman WAPDA Tariq Hamid at a Press conference early this year warned about the possible energy crisis and stressed the need for 'quantum jump' in power generation. The experts say it could only be possible through a mega project of hydropower generation; otherwise the gap between firm supply and peak demand will remain on the rise.
2 IPRI Factfile
They said the power generation projects, which are due to commission in coming years are of low capacity and will not be able to exceed the surging demand of the electricity.
They say no power generation project will commission during this fiscal year and the total installed capacity of electricity generation will remain 19,478 MW to meet 15,082 MW firm supply and 14,642 MW peak demand.
Giving details of projects, the sources said Malakand-lll (81MW), Pehur (18MW) and combined cycle power plant at Faisalabad (450MW) are planned to be commissioned during the year 2007. Mangla Dam raising project would also add 150 MW capacity to the national grid by June 2007.
Besides this, Khan Khwar (72MW), Allai Khwar (121MW), Duber Khwar (130MW) and Kayal Khwar (130MW) are expected to be completed in 2008 along with Golan Gol (106MW) and Jinnah (96MW). Moreover, Matiltan (84MW), New Bong Escape (79MW) and Rajdhani (132MW) are expected by 2009 while Taunsa (120MW) is likely to be completed by 2010. Sources say WAPDA has also planned to install a high efficiency combined cycle power plant at Baloki (450MW), which is expected to be completed by 2010. In addition of these, power plant 1 & 2 of 300 MW each at Thar Coal with the assistance of China are also planned for commissioning in 2009, sources said. Moreover, efforts are also under way with China National Nuclear Corporation for the construction of a third nuclear power plant with a gross capacity of 325 MW at Chashma, they added.
When contacted, a WAPDA official said there is no power shortage in the country at present as the Authority still has over 1,000 MW surplus electricity. However, he admitted that the shortage may occur in the year 2007 and onward and said the Authority will utilise all options including running of IPPs plant at full capacity to avert any possible crisis.
About the system augmentation to bring down line losses, the official said the Authority would spend Rs 3.5 billion on augmentation of distribution lines this fiscal while another Rs 5 billion will be consumed on transmission lines. "We have been negotiating Rs 9 billion loan with a consortium of local banks to upgrade and augment the power transmission system," he disclosed. The official further said that five new transmission lines of 220-KV would be installed by the end of 2004, that would ensure smooth supply to the consumers. He expressed full trust on present transmission and distribution system and said it could easily sustain the load of total installed power generation in the country.
July 2, 2004
http://www.energybulletin.net/883.htm
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 3
MAJOR ENERGY CRISIS FEARED
Pakistan is most likely to face a major energy crisis in natural gas, power and oil in the next three to four years that could choke the economic growth for many years to come, official estimates and energy experts suggest.
Pakistan's total energy requirement would increase by about 48 per cent to 80 million tons of oil equivalent (MTOE) in 2010 from about 54 MTOE currently, but major initiatives of meeting this gap are far from turning into reality, said a former petroleum minister on condition of anonymity for the simple reason that he had also served the present government.
Major shortfall is expected in the natural gas supplies, he said. According to official energy demand forecast, he added, the demand for natural gas, having about 50 per cent share in the country's energy consumption, would increase by 44 per cent to 39 MTOE from 27 MTOE currently.
Partly contributed by gas shortfalls, the power shortage is expected to be little over 5,250MW by 2010, he said, adding that the oil demand would also increase by over 23 per cent to about 21 million tons in 2010 from the current demand of 16.8 million tons.
This would leave a total deficit of about nine million tons of diesel and furnace oil imports, he said. Since the gas shortfalls were expected to be much higher, the country would need to enhance its dependence on imported oil, thus increasing pressure on foreign exchange situation, he added.
Last year's oil import bill amounted to about $6.5 billion compared with about $3.5 billion in 2004-05, mainly because of higher international oil prices - a burden expected to be even higher in future as a result of growing Middle East crisis.
Current year's oil import bill has again been projected by the government at about $6.5 billion on last year's average prices, which have started to rise in the recent days.
According to the former minister, the government had planned five major initiatives to meet these energy requirements. They included three gas import pipelines, Gwadar port as energy hub and LNG import. However, four of these measures, including the three import pipeline projects, show no signs of progress for various reasons while concentration on energy facilities in Gwadar would chiefly depend on security situation, besides oil and gas import pipelines.
Planning Commission sources said the government had planned to add an overall power generation capacity of about 7,880MW by 2010. Of this, about 4,860MW is to be based on natural gas, accounting for 61 per cent of capacity expansion.
4 IPRI Factfile
However, the gas-based power expansion of about 4,860MW would remain in doubt since these estimates were based on gas import options for completion in 2010, 2015 and 2020, said the sources.
The fifth initiative of LNG import was on schedule and would start delivering about 0.3 billion cubic feet of gas (BCFD) by 2009 and another 0.5 BCFD by 2015, said the sources.
Petroleum ministry officials are not ready to speak on record about gas import options and resultant overall energy shortfalls because of recent political developments on Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline project and security situation in Afghanistan and non-certification of gas reserves in Turkmenistan.
According to World Bank estimates, a demand gap (supply shortage) of about four per cent of the total demand, is expected in 2010. Even though this gap would be met by LNG imports, it would again increase to 20 per cent of the total demand. The bank said the indigenous gas supply would fall from 32.6 MTOE in 2010 to 20.7 MTOE in 2025 while the 'gas supply-demand gap' would rapidly increase as demand is expected to grow continuously, quadrupling in 2025.
As per the World Bank estimates, the gas imports will represent almost 67 per cent of natural gas supply in 2025. One can, therefore, gauge the quantum of shortage in case import pipelines are not materialised.
Pakistan's gas reserves are 32.8 TCF at present, with reserve-production ratio in the order of 27 years, considering that domestic production does not grow substantially. Power sector demand represents 41 per cent of total gas consumption, general industries 24 per cent, fertiliser 7.8 per cent and domestic-commercial 22.8 per cent, cement 1.5 per cent and CNG 2.8 per cent.
Demand growth has been up to 8.5 per cent in recent years and is expected to be seven per cent with power industries and domestic consumption accounting for 82 per cent. Gas demand already displays seasonal pattern with national demand growing in winter beyond transmission capacity. Therefore, supplies to large users mainly industries and power plants are curtailed during winter months to ensure supplies to domestic, commercial and small industries. Annual production at present is about 1.16 TCF.
Khaleeq Kiani, Dawn, July 28, 2006
http://www.dawn.com/2006/07/29/top16.htm
PAKISTAN'S QUEST FOR ENERGY SECURITY
Energy has become an important prerequisite for the economic development of a country. On one hand it is used for the industrial and agricultural purposes and on the other hand it is required for domestic use of the citizens. Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source. Globally
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 5
consumption of natural gas is projected to increase by nearly 70 percent between 2002 and 2025, with the most vigorous growth in demand expected among the emerging economies. Consumption of natural gas worldwide increases in the forecast by an average of 2.3 percent annually from 2002 to 2025, compared with projected annual growth rates of 1.9 percent for oil consumption and 2.0 percent for coal consumption. The electric power sector accounts for almost one-half of the total incremental growth in worldwide natural gas demand over the forecast period.
South Asia is important to world energy markets because it contains 1.3 billion people and is experiencing rapid energy demand growth. After India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are the next largest South Asian countries in these categories. Economic and population growth in South Asia have resulted in rapid increases in energy consumption in recent years. The major energy issues facing South Asian nations today are keeping up with rapidly rising energy demand. Agency for energy consumption has projected that by the year 2010 South Asian countries shall be consuming more than double the current levels of primary commercial energy.
Pakistan's largest energy source is natural gas, with demand and imports growing rapidly.
Currently, natural gas supplies 49 percent of Pakistan's energy needs. According to the Oil and Gas Journal (OGJ), as of January 1, 2005, Pakistan had 26.83 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of proven natural gas reserves. Pakistan is looking to increase its gas production to support increasing consumption through Pipelines from Iran and Turkmenistan. Currently, Pakistan ranks third in the world for use of natural gas as a motor fuel, behind Brazil and Argentina. In addition, Pakistan hopes to make gas the fuel of choice for future electric power generation projects. Pakistan ambitiously seeks to increase oil production through new alliances with foreign companies. Pakistan's net oil imports are projected to rise substantially in coming years as demand growth outpaces increases in production.
Pakistan will see power shortages by 2007 unless actions are taken to increase generation and reduce transmission losses. Pakistan has 18 gigawatts (GW) of electric generating capacity. Thermal plants using oil, natural gas, and coal account for about 70 percent of this capacity, with hydroelectricity (hydro) making up 28 percent and nuclear 2.5 percent. Pakistan's total power generating capacity has increased rapidly in recent years, largely due to foreign investment, ultimately leading to a partial alleviation of the power shortages. Pakistan often faces load shedding in peak seasons. Transmission losses are about 30 percent, due to poor quality infrastructure and a significant amount of power theft. Periodic droughts affect the availability of hydropower. The Government is understandably engaged in a vigorous effort to expand the nation's power generation capacity through building of dams and inviting foreign investors for establishing thermal units in the country. The things are,
6 IPRI Factfile
however, seemingly getting out of its hand due to the yawning gap between supply and demand of electricity.
Coal currently plays a minor role in Pakistan's energy mix. However, Pakistan contains an estimated 3,362 million tons, sixth largest in the world. President Musharraf has stated that coal should make up more than the current 1 percent of electric power generation in Pakistan. The Pakistani Ministry of Industries and Production has granted a Chinese company to build two coal-fired power-generation plants to supply 600 MW of electricity. Aside from power plants generated by coal, Pakistan is also working to expand the use of wind turbines. For instance, the Pakistan Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) recently approved New Park Energy Phase I, a 400-MW wind project near Port Qasim.
Energy cooperation is the key to regional development. Pakistan's government is working on plans to build an Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline that spans from Iran's massive reserves to Indian markets across Pakistani territory. Russia's biggest gas producer, Gazprom, has recently shown interest in the $7.4 billion pipeline project and has indicated its desire to invest in it. While Iran and Pakistan have made agreements to move forward, India still remains reluctant due to its recent nuclear deal with USA. Iran has offered to cover 60 percent of the construction costs of the pipeline and Pakistani officials have stressed their ability to safeguard the pipeline. Iran will lay the pipeline from Pars to Pakistani border. Islamabad will build the pipeline from the Iranian border to its Central Pakistani city of Bhong in District Rahaim Yar Khan. Both countries have discussed the gas pricing formula, project structure, its feasibility, gas off-take volumes and the gas sales and purchase agreement. In spite of US pressure for not building IPI pipeline, Pakistan remains determined for the pipeline. In fact, in the face of the US pressure against IPI, now two pipelines from Iran are under "active consideration" — one for Pakistan and the other for India, through Pakistan. If India participates in IPI project, Pakistan will be entitled to transit fee. But, if Pakistan builds the pipeline from the Iranian to the Indian border, then it will also be entitled to transportation charges.
This is the great vision of President Pervez Musharraf and Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz according to which Pakistan is going to become an energy corridor for China. Islamabad's negotiation for a second transnational gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Pakistan via Afghanistan (TAP) also entered a final stage because experts are of the view that Pakistan's fast growing energy demand requires laying two gas pipelines. Washington supports the TAP project and has assured the pipeline's security through Afghanistan. It also holds good prospects for other South Asian users, depending on the size of supplies that Turkmenistan can arrange. The plans to build a third transnational gas pipeline from Qatar to Pakistan and India—- Gulf-South Asia Pipeline (GUSA)-—seem to have slowed down because of
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 7
the gas availability issues. "The plan to import gas from Qatar is not, however, shelved," maintained by Jahangir Khan, spokesman for Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Resources.
With the development of Gawadar Port, Pakistan can provide the trade and energy corridor for the whole region especially to China. In this perspective president has rightly remarked so, "When Karakoram Highway was built, the world called it the eighth wonder, and we can create the ninth and tenth wonders by establishing energy pipelines and railway linkages between the two fast growing economies." China and Pakistan agreed to widen KKH for larger vehicles with heavier freight. The rebuilding of KKH will enable China to ship its energy supplies from the Middle East from Gwader Port in Balochistan through the land route of KKH to western China, which is its development hub. This alternative energy supply route will reduce Beijing's dependence on the Malacca Straits. Pakistan also wants to set up a "crude transit route" through Gwader Port for Beijing's energy shipments from Iran and Africa. For this reason, Pakistan is building oil refineries, natural gas terminals, oil and gas equipment, and transit facilities in Balochistan. China has agreed to help Pakistan with its plans for the development of its oil and gas industry. With this planned elaborate energy infrastructure, KKH has assumed an added significance as an alternative land link between China and its energy sources, of which Iran is at the top. The recent Pak-China energy forum in Islamabad was a major step in formulating future strategy to ensure energy security of both countries.
Muhammad Munir, Pakistan Observer, 20 May 2006
WASTE TO ENERGY IS NEEDED IN PAKISTAN
Growing urbanisation and changes in the pattern of life, give rise to generation of increasing quantities of wastes and it's now becoming another threat to our already degraded environment. However, in recent years, waste-to-energy technologies have been developed to produce clean energy through the combustion of municipal solid waste in specially designed power plants equipped with the most modern pollution control equipment to clean emissions. Yet, solid waste management practices differ for developed and developing nations. In developing countries like Pakistan, institutions charged with the responsibility to make decisions on solid waste management, operate in the enormous information, policy and strategy vacuum and lack therefore the ability to address this looming environmental disaster.
The perfect 'case study' of information gap in selection of appropriate methodology to dispose municipal waste exhibited by the apex civic authority of Pakistan is when the capital development authority has finally decided to solve the ever-increasing volume of municipal waste by landfill in groundwater
8 IPRI Factfile
recharge area. While in developed countries, landfills are now bracketed as 'obsolete' and 'mines of the future' after observing several problems like pollution and contamination of groundwater by leachate and residual soil contamination after landfill closure and simple nuisance problems. This is the very reason why in the United States sanitary landfill techniques have steadily decreased from 8,000 in 1988 to 1,767 in 2002. Extensively focusing on turning waste to energy, municipal authorities in USA have realised the contribution of waste to an increasing electricity shortage.
Today in America, 2500 MW are solely generated by the waste-to-energy plants. Many other countries in the world, Sweden, Japan included, have applied this technology since the last 20 years. In the sub continent, India installed three projects to produce electricity from waste with a total capacity of 17.6 MW. Although these 'made in India' power plants are generating electricity by direct incineration, causing pollution and must be upgraded by sophisticated monitoring systems to check pollution. These examples are enough to establish that CDA's ignorance of modern technologies is surely not simply a lack of 'access to information', but questions the professional capabilities of the planners within its corridors.
The site selected for the landfill project is at Kuri, an ancient city of Potwar and its aerial distance is hardly five kilometres from sector G-5, known as the nucleus of Islamabad. Though, in July 2003, the same site was considered for a landfill project but UNDP out rightly rejected and warned that environmental cost would be considerable, besides air pollution, contamination of groundwater if Kuri was selected as a landfill project. JICA in 1988 also compiled a detail investigation report, which established that the area is the recharge zone of the aquifer catering for more than 50 per cent of the twin cities' drinking demand. Based on these serious environmental constraints, as its location is up a slope and within the flood plain of Gumrah River, the recharge-basin of the twin cities aquifer, the site was rejected. Recent floods substantiated the finding of all the reports, as the site is definitely within the flood plains of the Gumrah River and would need to be protected on a priority basis, especially as water shortages is now a permanent problem of the twin cities.
Whoever selected and approved the site for the 'disaster of the future', showed ignorance of the above reports and absolute ignorance of the adverse environmental impacts this project would create. Is this ignorance simply unawareness of the planners or is it complete apathy towards anything old, which rejects that Kuri is recorded as an ancient city of the Potowar Region. As CDA is constantly focusing on developing tourist attractions, why not preserve this historical area? Aware of the unprofessional management at CDA's varied directorates one anticipates leachates from the landfills, polluting the amazingly still clean groundwater table, while the wind will carry
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 9
waves of leaking gases towards the G-5 Sector, farther adding to the prevalent health hazards of the capital.
'Access to clean water' has been given the 'top priority' flag by the president. Selecting a site along the Gumrah River, known to recharge the groundwater along its winding course through Chak Shehzad and Kanna shows the warped priorities of the planning commission that approves projects, the ministry of interior responsible for CDA affairs and the CDA itself. Had CDA only followed the minutest details provided in the Federal Capital Commission Reports of 1960 by the earlier planners of the capital city, Islamabad today would have been a model for the rest of Pakistan.
The CDA ignored the most recent seismic zoning report of the region too. According to EPA US regulations, duly adopted by Pakistan's EPA, there should be no significant seismic risk within identified landfill sites. Kuri is within a highly sensitive earthquake zone, according to new seismic zoning maps prepared after the earthquake 2005. An earthquake having a magnitude of 4.2 was recorded on July 7, 1989 and its epicentre was at a distance of 10 kilometres from Kuri.
Had the spread of this infectious disease the 'vacuum of information' been contained in time, CDA would surely have been able to diagnose that the estimated cost of two billion rupees for the landfill site, would have sufficed for setting up an 'energy-to-waste' plant in the city. With load-shedding a permanent crisis in Pakistan, adding some extra megawatts through waste-to-energy could have solved many ills in the rapidly growing energy needs.
A vacuum of information has not allowed the CDA to communicate either with the alternate energy development board, established by the federal government in 2003. This board was given the mandate to solve the energy crisis that is facing this country through renewable technologies. Although advertisements in the printed media asked for feasibility studies of 'waste-to-energy' units for ten cities of the country, the twin cities were ignored. Had mutual interactions been part of the government systems, the funds available to the CDA for the ill-fated sanitary landfill, and the technical know-how of alternate energy development board (AEDB), Islamabad could have prided itself of being the first ever waste-to-energy unit in the country today.
The decision to construct a landfill project at extremely sensitive areas need not only to be reviewed but also need to empower the AEDB to generate electricity from waste to cope with the energy demand in the lines of international environmental commitments avoiding violation of the Kyoto Protocol and Stockholm Convention. Now decision-makers have to choose whether to allow the CDA to go ahead with the landfill project, to dump waste for adding more pollution and contamination of groundwater or to allow production of environment friendly energy.
Arshad H Abbasi, November 9, 2006
http://www.alternative-energy-news.info/waste-to-energy-pakistan
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TYPES OF ENERGY
Energy can be differentiated as
1. Kinetic energy
2. Potential energy
Kinetic Energy
1. Sound
2. Wind
3. Mechanical for example moving piston in a cylinder
4. Electrical energy. Electricity, lightning
5. Thermal Energy, Heat, hot water, steam
6. Light , microwaves, x-rays , solar, ultra violet rays
Potential energy
1. Gravitational energy. Hydro power, ball above ground
2. Spring . stretched rubber band
3. Magnetic planetary poles
4. Nuclear , fission, fusion, heavy water uranium
5. Chemical , gasoline, batteries, oil natural gas, gun powder, coal, wood
2007
http://www.energy.com.pk/energytypes.htm
THERMAL ENERGY
Thermal Energy is the oldest type of energy. With all known history available, Wood was always used for heating and cooking. In 2nd world war fossil fuels entered in the form of coal to get the energy, until liquid fuels were discovered and because of their convenience of transportation they took over as major contributors of the energy source.
Once the steam engines were invented then the coal or liquid fuel was burnt in the boilers and the heat produces steam which is used to drive electrical generators, or any other mechanical device.
Rudolph diesels invention of diesel engine revolutionaries the energy concept and today we see sine the majority of machines moving on diesel engines.
Diesel engines can be 2 stroke or 4 stroke type. They can be in line or arranged in V or even W shape. They can be single acting or double acting.
Another method of converting thermal energy to mechanical energy is by the gas turbines. Turbines are also used to run by steam or hot gases which are produced by igniting fuel.
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 11
For converting thermal energy to electrical energy alternators are used to drive on constant RPM.
The choice of gensets strictly depends on the requirement of the client, before ordering a power plant following points to be considered
1. Expected demand of the power.
2. Type of fuel required
3. Space available for the power plant
4. Avilability of genset
5. Avilability of local service back up and stock of parts
6. Price is paramount importance and hidden expenses should be looked carefully
The major manufacturers and suppliers of Gensets based on internal combustion engines are given below
1. MAN
2. Wartsila
3. Caterpillar
4. Jen Bacher
5. Waukesha
6. Mitsubishi
7. Detroit Diesel
8. Rolls Royce
Internal combustion engine can obtain 30-50% thermal efficiency. It means that around 50% energy is wasted in the form of exhaust gases , cooling systems and radiation. Therefore for larger plants heat recovery systems are utilized.
In Pakistan due to attractive gas prices this is a general trend that gas operated power plants are preferred if gas connections are available.
The gas gensets are available from less than 1 MW sizes to 6 MW configuration. Normally they are V type and 12,16 18 and 20 cylinder configuration.
In addition some models are available on duel fuel technology which can be operated simultaneously on gas and furnace oil.
The price of a 3 MW gas genset can be expected around 1 Million $. However low RPM engines will be more costly Unit cost of fuel on gas genset can be evaluated as follows
Fuel Cost Rs 2.7 (depends upon the genset )
Maintenance Rs 0.20
Lubricating Oil Rs.0.10
Chemical R Rs. 0.02
General stores Rs. 0.01
Labor Rs.0.10
Overhead +Insurance Rs.0.07
Financing 0.20
12 IPRI Factfile
Total Rs. 3.40
The engines which are running the fuel cost is only variable and can be calculated by multiplying fuel cost by a factor of 225. (225 grams / KWHR is an average net fuel consumption expected.)
2007
http://www.energy.com.pk/THERMAL_%20ENERGY.htm
HYDEL ENERGY
Water flowing in the rivers has kinetic energy. Once they are used to drive the turbine and produce electricity the power generated as Hydel Energy.
Power produced by the turbines depends on quantity of water flowing/minute and the head of water available.
Mostly river flows by melting glaciers on high mountains. Once the water start flowing in the valleys it changes its head very rapidly. This energy can be converted into electrical energy.
Two method are normally used:-
1. Dams
2. Run of River projects.
In case of Dams the water flow is restricted by making a huge storage device and the head of water is increased, the water then is allowed to flow by means of gates and pass through the turbines, the head of reservoir level is maintained to provide uniform power, and the water stored in peak season additionally is used for irrigation purposes in dry seasons.
In run of river projects the water is diverted through the tunnels and once it gains the head allowed to fall and pass through the turbines and back to river. the water in these projects is continuously flowing and not being stored.
Geographical situation is paramount importance in choosing a suitable site for the hydro project and it evolves a very serious time and money consuming study.
Once a site is located further detailed feasibility study is required before proceeding any serious effort to start the work.
The feasibility study should include following field work.
1. Detailed Mapping of the area
2. Topographic study of the area
3. Seismic refraction study
4. River flow data
5. Weather data containing, Temperatures, pressures, rain humidity
6. Water sampling and testing
7. Environmental study
8. Social impact
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 13
9. Wild life and fish study
10. Identification of stake holders of the area
11. Coring and getting samples of the soil at 50-200 meters depth
12. Laboratory testing of the cores samples
13. Tectonic study to evaluate earth quake dangers
2007
http://www.energy.com.pk/hydel.htm
WIND ENERGY
Pakistan is facing acute shortage of energy. with 7% increase of its economy this short fall soon to slow down its economic growth and will shatter its dream to become one day a developed country.
Most of its energy demand is being met with either Hydro power or thermal units. Pakistan is spending a very large amount of foreign exchange to purchase the furnace. The gas reserves already start depleting and oil markets are sky rocketing. To overcome this shortage Government take a initiative to investigate Alternate energy resources in Pakistan developed Alternate Energy Board AEDB. The Board is headed by Retd Air Marshal Shahid Hamid. identified 50,000 MW energy potential from wind resource
Pakistan is blessed with a large resource of wind corridor. Although Pakistan meteorological Department was gathering wind data for quite long time But recently United States provided wind energy map for Pakistan which confirms a strong wind corridor in Sind coastal area.
AEDB issued about 80 LOI to the investors List of LOI holders )to develop 50 MW wind farms. Out of which 15 are already issued the land and feasibility reports and financial closings are in progress.
The following is a brief road map for developing a wind form
1. submission of proposal by sponsor
2. Review of proposal by AEDB
3. Posting of Bank Guarantee
4. issuance of letter of intent ( LOI )
5. Feasibility study
6. Generation License
7. Tariff Determination
8. Submission of Performance Guarantee
9. Tariff determination by NEPRA
10. Submission of performance guarantee
11. Issuance of Letter of support
14 IPRI Factfile
The first requirement of conducting feasibility study is to install a wind mast. The three major manufacturers of wind data are listed below. This document explains the method for installing weather station.
1. www.wilmers.com
2. www.ammonit.de
3. www.environdata.com.au
Geological, seismic, tectonic and environmental studies will be required along with Digital mapping and topography of the site for preparing a bankable feasibility study. A confirm EPC cost will also be needed for calculation of tariffs.
Some large manufacturers of wind turbines are given below
1.
Denmark (27.9%)
2.
GE Wind, US (17.7%)
3.
Enercon,Germany (13.2%)
4.
Gamesa, Spain (12.9%)
5.
Suzlon, India (6.1%)
6.
Siemens, Denmark (5.5%)
7.
Repower, Germany (3.1%)
8.
Nordex, Germany (2.6%)
9.
Ecotecnia, Spain (2.1%)
1
Mitsubishi, Japan (2.0%)
WIND ENERGY BASICS
Power developed by a wind turbine can be mathematically shown in following formulae
1/2xdensity of air x effective area of rotor blade x cube of speed of wind
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 15
The lay out and designing of the wind form can be done by wind energy planning and project software available in market in a reasonable price . One such software is Wind Pro which is a very convenient tool for project management.
Environmental Protection agency require a detailed environmental impact study of the project. The following issues should be discussed detail
1. Birds collision or alteration of their migration routes
2. Noise impact
3. flickering
2007
http://www.energy.com.pk/Wind%20Energy.htm
RISING OIL PRICES
All predictions now failing and the oil prices are rising and now about to reach 100 $ level. who knows that in market trading if even the customers are buying the oil on +100 $. the reason being given for this enormous rise is the US oil reserves are depleting and therefore customers are ready to purchase the oil at any price available.
The future prospects also not very encouraging. All trading is being made on +90 $. OPEC promised to raise its out put but with out any
16 IPRI Factfile
significant effect. for the time being the prices were dipped but risen again on much higher values.
The winter is just arriving and nobody knows that these prices will settle at what level.
Rising tension between US and Iran is one reason. Some sources are predicting the attack on Iran is imminent. If the condition continues like this who is going to be benefited.
Emerging economies and developing will suffer most. Their economy is dependent on energy resources. how can survive and how can they meet their production commitments.
In recent months oil surged from 70$ to 92$ and still rising. Those industries which consumes more energy will suffer with maximum. It will lead to rise of inflation shutting down in efficient industries and rising un employment in third world countries.
When come to individual the poor will suffer most .High income group will survive and it will not effect on their livings. But the strains coming on poor in third world countries will transform to social unrest and hence will cause instability in the region.
Pakistan economy is already under intense pressure. On one hand it has the competitors like China and India giving cut throat fight. Another end it has continuous problem on its western borders draining its resources and causing political chaos. The election is just three months away and the results expected are the change of government to Pakistan Peoples Party.
Pakistan exports and its all economic activities are dependent of uninterrupted energy supplies for its energy requirement maximum share still of furnace which is imported from Middle East countries. Rising prices will bring a wave of inflation.
Already many textile mills closed down due to higher production costs which make it un economical. further increase in oil prices will definitely bring more strain on existing working units. In election environments it will be definitely a difficult decision for Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz to authorize the fuel prices in Pakistan.
But he has no other option. How far the Government continues to absorb the fuel bills eventually it has to increase the prices. And again who will suffer simply the poor
Today only there are news that Pakistan is going ahead 2000 MW power plant based on furnace oil. Now we have to look for the future and sustainable economic activity.
Development of Renewable energy resources are not moving ahead beyond symposiums and conferences or in other crude words lip services. Pakistan's future as economic leader in the region is at stake if sustainable cheap energy resources are not developed on priority.
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 17
So the solution is not so simple. Renewable yes. The hurdles should be identified and removed on priority.
One area which we want to emphasize is the conservation of energy. We have to persuade all concerned that all possible measures to be taken to save energy so it can be used for future.
Energy efficient plants and machines are the recipe for our survival.
2007
http://www.energy.com.pk/risingoilprices.htm
PAKISTAN COAL RESERVES SHOULD BE EXPLORED
The energy shortage is increasing day by day and the resources of Pakistan are limited and this year we are witnessing increasing of imported fuel bill. This is time that Pakistan should explore all its available resources.
We see a limited progress in alternate energy sector. But so far little efforts are being made to explore and use the coal reserves in Sind.
This is claimed that coal quality is inferior and having low BTU. This is a challenging task. Today technology and boilers are available that can burn any kind of coal. Therefore all possible measures should be adopted to utilize existing resources.
The smaller size power plants near the coal mines which can get direct feed and connect to National Grid will be an ideal configuration.
2007
http://www.energy.com.pk/news%20and%20views.htm
PAKISTAN IRAN AGREE ON GAS PIPE LINE PROJECT
This week very good news coming in energy sector that Iran and Pakistan finally agreed to go ahead with the project.
The gas project which was initiated by Iran India and Pakistan was having many constraints and was continuously under pressure from US. India was asking more time to make the decision and therefore the project was delayed.
Finally Iran and Pakistan decided to continue with the project and when ever India decides it can be accommodated in the project extension.
The major issue which is now resolved is the gas price which is now related to petroleum prices as per the international practice. For all practical purposes the gas purchased will be based on BTU values as agreed by both partners.
For Pakistan it means that the gas will be on higher price than the domestic supply which is subsidized for common house hold users.
18 IPRI Factfile
The gas is prime energy source for domestic usage as well as fertilizers and power generation companies.
This is expected that the average price when fixed for local consumers will take care for common users as well as industrial users
Iran wants quick decision for Gas Pipe
Iran asking India to make the decision of joining Gas Pipe Line project soonest, otherwise the project will be started with Pakistan.
Reluctance of India to make a firm decision is understandable due to Geo-Political Scenario. However this project is vitally important and profitable for Indian sustainable economic growth. Therefore a positive outcome is expected soon.
2007
http://www.energy.com.pk/pakiran.htm
ECNEC APPROVES ENERGY PROJECTS
The Executive Committee of the National Economic Council ECNEC approved 23 projects worth 116.5 Billion Rs. The meeting was the last on the chairman ship of Prime Minister Mr. Shaukat Aziz whose term is expiring in three weeks.
Energy sector was given prime consideration and the development of nuclear power projects approved. Pakistan facing acute shortage of energy and this is a wise decision to focus on nuclear energy which is renewable, cheap and environment free.
with furnace reaching 100$ Large Hydel projects having social concerns ,wind turbines not available in market, and gas reserves depleting nuclear becomes most attractive option.
2007
http://www.energy.com.pk/ecnec.htm
ENERGY CRISIS IN PAKISTAN - I
We have written many blogs on this subject. But we never thought that the situation will reach to such disastrous condition so soon.
Last week we saw a series of disasters in energy sector. Pakistan electrical energy production sustain shortfall of 3000 MW. Actual figure is slightly controversial as we have seen various statements emerging from various sectors.
Production units were shut. There was severe load shedding through- out the country. APTMA was forced to accept volunteer load shedding of 5 hours each day on all units. And the residential areas were with out power
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 19
maximum time of the day.
The situation was worsened because Sui Gas Company already stopped the supply of industrial units and was going through a system of load shedding it self. Therefore captive units were shut off due to non avilability of the gas. The IPP who were operating on furnace could not get the regular supply of furnace and they did not bother to keep enough stock for contingency therefore stop shutting.
And then naturally the blame game started, starting from the water shortage in Dams to furnace oil transportation problem, violence in Sind and maintenance activity in some independent power producers.
Now it is officially declared that in last 10 years not a singles MW was added. We have seen hundreds of seminars, conferences and events on energy issues in Pakistan. The money wasted there if utilized then at least we can add few hundred MW of Power.
The fact is that Pakistan is sustaining an acute shortage of Power. Its demand is increasing and production is declining due to aging of the plants.
And no solution is in sight. The projects which are in pipe line will not come in line before 2009. And even the magnitude is such that it will not be able to fulfill the demand of today.
WAPDA is in favor of large dams and thinks that the delay of construction of large dams was the basic reason for the shortage of power. The issue is very controversial subject and it is not expected to resolve soon. Moreover the construction of the dam will take at least 10 years and if the situation persist our economy will then come to a stage where it will need any power any more.
The situation demand an urgent decision. A decision which is vital for the safety, stability and survival of Pakistan.
Energy is a key factor for the stability and prosperity of Pakistan. If our production units keep on shutting then un employment will rise and hence street violence will rise.
This is the time to restructure our energy policy. In our opinion instead of many agencies one central ministry should look after the energy issues in Pakistan.
This is utmost important that an environment should be created where the investments are made in energy sector. Recently Government is advocating a policy of promoting the investment in Private Sector. Although the response is favorable but the out come is very slow.
Now Government has to make a huge investment in energy sector. And the investment has to be in direct purchase of power plants, manufacturing main and auxiliary units,
The objective should be utilization of diversified energy resources. It is imperative that renewable energy resources should be explored but still conventional thermal and coal fired power plants should be established.
20 IPRI Factfile
The strategy should be to explore indigenous local resources. For example furnace oil plants are best suited in Karachi where the port and refinery facilities are available. Gas plants to be installed in Baluchistan, Sind and N.W.F.P near to existing gas fields. N.W.F.P should explore medium, small and micro size hydro projects. Sind must use its Coal reserves. Wind turbines to be installed in coastal belt, and Punjab must explore bio-gas and city waste plants.
From US and Europe we should borrow and purchase the technology to manufacture various power plants in Pakistan. For example if we start building 1-3 KW micro hydro, wind or solar power plants in Pakistan sufficient to provide energy to one home we can sell to individual families direct at low installments. The cost will be recovered in utility bills compensation.
For the furnace IPP and captive power plants should be allowed to import furnace oil duty free. Then existing laid up power plants will again become operational.
All efforts to be made that Iran Pakistan gas pipeline project is implemented soonest. Moreover one additional pipe line for crude oil to be installed to reduce our dependence on sea route.
Pakistan is in need of energy very badly and urgently. Pakistan should look for nuclear energy possibilities. Pakistan is one of seven countries in the world who has an indigenous capability to operate the nuclear power plant for last forty years.
Pakistan should look all alternatives to increase its electrical energy production by 10,000 MW in two years. This is a very challenging and difficult task. But if it fails its target then all other indicators will go negative leaving behind a disastrous situation.
A dedicated campaign of energy conservation is needed to spread the awareness of energy conservation programs. This is also believed that in general major energy consumers have little or no awareness of energy saving procedures. The machinery when purchased a very little emphasis is given on electrical or mechanical efficiency of the plant. The result is that our production units are consuming much more energy than their competitors resulting their product cost high and it is not competitive in international market.
Energy conservation is indeed energy production. So if an investment is made in this sector then it will pay back in 3-5 years.
This is the responsibility of Government to start various energy conservation programs suited for various industries.
2007
http://www.energy.com.pk/energy%20disastor.htm
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 21
ENERGY CRISIS IN PAKISTAN - II
A very common question asked in Pakistan is about the most burning issue in Pakistan? The answer you will get may be a list of hundreds of issues which start from Kashmir and will end on terrorism or militancy etc etc.
Recently Mr. Mansha in an interview in CNN replied same question by giving a simple answer that water and energy are two most valid problems in Pakistan.
Energy is a most problematic issue in the world. Whereas oil prices are steadily rising and no stability is seen in near future. Demands of energy from the emerging markets like China and India are growing day by day. Pakistan with official figurers of growth rate of 8% will have a definite rise in demand of energy for minimum 3%
In USA the Gulf of Mexico is famous for oil producing and refining facilities. The prosperity of Houston is only due to oil industry being flourished. However the weather is not so kind on this area and hurricanes and tornadoes commonly hit the southern part of USA and Caribbean.
Such is the volatility of fuel market now that just news of one hurricane developing in Caribbean shoots the oil prices in the world. A few years before oil was being traded on 20$ and no body ever thought that the weather conditions in the gulf can effect the oil market.
Politically the Iran situation is deteriorating day by day where as Iraq condition is not stabilizing. Oil today is being traded around 65 $/, and the most vital question now is what will happen if the prices rises to 75 $ or even one hundred $/barrel.
Pakistan with small manufacturing market, surrounded by major emerging economies like China, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines and Bangladesh will be worst effected with the rise of energy prices.
As a rule of thumb modern day manufacturing industries utilize at least 33% production cost in terms of energy prices. An increase of energy cost will effect their production cost and will force the manufacturers that either to reduce the labor cost or to remain competitive in market by improving the quality standards.
Major giants China and India will benefit with this condition and smaller economies will suffer badly.
Are our policy makers in Islamabad thinking for the gravity of problem which is now just standing on our door step?
On famous oil embargo days a lot of research in Europe was carried out to find the alternate source of energy. The findings are available even in college books. However with the drop of oil prices such alternatives were uneconomical and therefore shelved.
22 IPRI Factfile
This is the time that Pakistan now asses very carefully that in case of oil prices rising to 75 $ what actions it should take to conserve energy and to find the alternate source of energy.
A volunteer option for all energy users is to conserve energy. To make the plants more efficient and to see that each drop of petrol is saved .If we make serious study on this subject then we may achieve up to 20% saving in energy ,hence saving in our production cost and making our products more attractive in international market.
Of course the energy conservation programs cost money. However the investment will be rewarding and will be beneficial in long terms.
Pakistan's thermal units are day by day become aging, reducing their output power. With the rise of demand very soon we will see an acute shortage of energy and hence load shedding and shutting of the industrial units. This will seriously affect our competitiveness in the international market.
A liberal and progressive policy with less bureaucratic approach towards energy producing units will help and bring attractive investment in Power sector.
This is the responsibility of government to look for the alternate options for finding the energy resources. This investment can only be made by the federal government.
This is the time of survival. Only the countries which are prepared for the worst will have a prosperous future.
2007
http://www.energy.com.pk/energycrisis.htm
PAKISTAN'S ENERGY CRISIS TO WORSEN IN NEXT TWO YEARS
The Pakistani government is anticipating the energy crisis to worsen in the coming two years due to a 50% increase in the demand and a rather slow improvement in the supply, the leading Pakistani newspaper DAWN reported Monday.
The power shortage, estimated to be 1000 to 2000 MW during the current year, is likely to hit 3000 MW next year and to increase to about 5300 MW by 2010, said the report.
The overall energy requirement of Pakistan is expected to be about 80 million tons of oil equivalents (MTOE) in 2010, up by about 50% from the 54 MTOE of the current year, it said.
A government official told DAWN that the energy shortage was severe and widespread in almost all areas, and natural gas, power, and oil shortages were all posing risks to the economic growth in medium to long term period.
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 23
Another official, quoted by the report, said that the development of water resources would resolve the problem in the long run but in the short term, there was a limit to constructing costly thermal power projects given their high economic costs.
A major shortfall is expected in natural gas supplies, as an official energy demand forecast indicates that the demand for natural gas, which makes up about 50% of Pakistan's energy consumption, would increase by 44% to 39 MTOE from 27 MTOE currently, DAWN reported.
The government had planned five major initiatives, including three gas import pipelines, the Gwadar port as energy hub and the LNG import to meet these energy requirements.
But four of these measures, namely the three import pipeline projects, are uncertain at present, while concentration on energy facilities in Gwadar would chiefly depend on security situation, besides oil and gas import pipelines, said the report.
Xinhua English Newswire, January 9, 2007
http://tdworld.com/news/pakistan-energy-crisis
WIND POWER: A SOLUTION TO ENERGY CRISIS
TO encourage private investment in power sector, the government formulated power generation policy (2002). However, progress in commissioning of new power plants has been slow. In the four years since the revised policy was implemented, only one 225 MW gas-fired power plant has achieved financial close.
The extended time lag is not entirely unusual as power projects based on natural gas and furnace-oil involve prolonged negotiations to secure contracts guaranteeing uninterrupted supply of fuel over the life of the project. Up till now, these contracts were entered into with state-owned energy companies such as PSO and OGDC. As these corporations are to be privatised, the government-guaranteed fuel-supply contracts might not be available for new projects.
This will make project financing more difficult since a private enterprise is more likely to default on its fuel-supply obligation over the 25-year life of a power project than a state-owned corporation. This could potentially result in further delays in implementing thermal power projects.
24 IPRI Factfile
As Pakistan's energy needs are immediate , thermal and large hydro-electric plants may not be the solution because such projects may take between 4-12 years to become operational. In order to meet the energy requirements, the best option is exploiting wind energy because wind power projects can start generating electricity within two years.
This is why wind energy is the fastest-growing source of power in the world and its globally-installed capacity has risen from 20,000MW in 2001 to 70,000MW in 2006. USA alone is installing 4,500MW per annum and China plans to install 20,000MW by the year 2020.
India offers a good example of a country that has embraced wind energy and has added substantial electricity generation capacity within a short period of time! It's cumulative wind power generation capacity is 6,018MW, of which 4,500MW was installed in last five years! If Pakistan can realise half the growth that India has achieved, it can add 2,250MW to its electricity supply in the next five years, much more than possible by pursuing thermal power projects. In fact, wind energy can go a long way in meeting our acute energy shortage. It has also the following additional benefits.
First, thermal electricity production ignores certain "negative externalities". Externalities are implied costs which are not reflected in the price of a service. For example, a power plant running on natural gas will divert its limited supply from domestic consumption as well as vital industrial use. The total supply of natural gas is fixed and so its usage for power generation could result in a shortfall in other sectors of the economy. An example being the recent shut-down of 11 cement and two fertilizer plants due to gas-supply shortage. The economic loss resulting from deficiency of natural gas due to excessive reliance on gas-fired power generation is a negative externality.
Similarly, in event of war or terrorism, supply routes of oil-tankers/ gas-pipelines will require extensive military protection. This extra cost of security is also a negative externality of thermal power plants. The exclusion of negative externalities understates the true cost of thermal power generation and makes it appear cheaper than it is. Compared to thermal power generation, wind power provides a secure and independent source of externality-free energy.
Second, Pakistan's current account deficit for FY2006 was recorded at $5.7 billion. The deficit is likely to worsen next year when it is expected to exceed $8 billion. The large increase in the current account deficit is mainly due to a 66.6 per cent surge in oil-imports, a large portion of it is due to increased demand from oil-fired power plants.
Any strategy to cut current account deficit has to deal with cutting oil imports and this can be achieved by reducing reliance on power-generation from furnace oil. Here again, wind energy offers an effective alternative to oil-fired power plants which will help reduce the current account deficit.
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 25
Third,, thermal power tariff is vulnerable to spikes in oil prices similar to the one in early 2006 when the crude-oil prices jumped to $78. As the tariff regime compensates the IPPs for the cost of fuel, any sustained increase in oil prices will feed into the tariff calculation and result in higher cost of electricity. Exploiting wind energy makes economic sense since wind is free and it will make cost of electricity generation less vulnerable to temporary or permanent increases in oil prices.
Lastly, wind power plants will be able to claim carbon-credits (certified emission reductions or CERs) for producing clean energy. CERs are already trading on European commodities exchanges and a global trading mechanism is being developed. Recently, an investment bank (Morgan Stanley) invested more than $3 billion in CERs.
Therefore, CER prices are expected to rise as they continue to attract interest. Under the renewable energy policy, the CERs will be shared between the IPP and the government. This will have the effect of reducing the net-cost of wind power since revenues generated from sale of government-owned CERs will off-set a portion of the tariff paid to the IPP.
Exploiting wind power offers the best route for attaining sufficiency in electricity production and reducing reliance on gas and imported furnace oil. Though wind power requires greater investment per mega-watt produced, however, unlike thermal power generation wind power avoids negative externalities such as additional cost of protecting fuel supply routes.
Wind energy will help reduce the country's oil-import bill and the cost of power generation less vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices. In addition to all these benefits, windfall from sale of carbon credits will make wind power an economically attractive proposition for meeting our electricity demand at an accelerated pace.
Pakistan has a huge potential to develop wind power. The "wind corridor" in the coastal area of Sindh alone has the capacity to generate 50,000MW and AEDB has put in place a `renewable energy policy that is one of the most comprehensive and investor-friendly in the world. However, progress towards first wind power plant has been handicapped by a severe shortage in supply of wind turbines. The experience of other countries is that once the first project is executed, subsequent additions to capacity take place at an accelerated pace. This should be the case with Pakistan as well.
It is important that the government continues to provide incentives to private investors in the form of an attractive tariff. This support is essential for the development phase of wind power sector and to realise its potential. Exploiting wind resources is not only in our economic interest, but serves our security interest as well!
Malik Ahmad Jalal, Dawn, January 29, 2007
http://www.dawn.com/2007/01/29/ebr13.htm
26 IPRI Factfile
ENERGY CRISIS MAY GO FROM BAD TO WORSE
The country may witness an aggravated energy crisis in the years to come as the proposed thermal power house at Chichuki Maliyan with a capacity to generate 500 megawatt electricity is in the doldrums, as the project has been withdrawn from Wapda in a strange development, The News has learnt.
Right now power consumers are facing a massive power shortfall of about 2,000 megawatt and this crisis will persist in the years to come as the Chichuki Maliyan power project will get delayed.
Earlier the government had decided that the Chichuki Maliyan power project would be initiated in the public sector and Wapda had been assigned the task.
Wapda conducted the international competitive bidding (ICB) and received the lowest bid from the Japan-based Marubeni Company. Under the agreement, the Marubeni Company was also to invest in the project and to this effect it had arranged a loan from the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC).
Wapda was to complete the thermal plant at Chichuki Maliyan with 340 megawatt production in August 2008 and another 160 megawatt by Dec 2008, and it was strong perception that this project would give a massive relief to the common man and wriggle the country out of load-shedding and power crisis.
Confirming the shocking development, a senior Wapda official from Lahore said that the top decision makers in the country have taken a U-turn and decided that the private sector would complete this project of paramount importance. "But under the new decision, the project would be inordinately delayed," he feared. The price of the project has also increased by Rs 100 million because of the delay, and this a very shocking decision. "The earlier cost of the project was Rs 2.6 billion."
In the wake of the decision, Wapda had to stop all the spadework to initiate the project. "The government has taken the new decision as the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) will initiate this project," the official said.
The Board of Investment (BoI) has managed to bring the Qatar Investment Authority in the country and persuaded it to invest in this project. However, sources in the BoI confided to The News that Saifur Rehman, a close aide to former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, was a partner of the QIA and had 25 per cent equity in it.
The official said that in the last two months the BoI has held about two meetings with QIA officials and Pakistan has inked an MoU with Qatar to this effect. "Under the MoU, the Qatar Investment Authority has to come up with financial close within three months," the official said.
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 27
Asked about the status of the project after the government decided to withdraw it from Wapda, he said that Wapda was about to start the project and the Japanese company had been short-listed and its terms and conditions were also evaluated. But after the new decision, all the activities have been stopped.
Replying to a question, he said that in case the QIA failed to come up with financial close within the stipulated time, the project would be further delayed, escalating the project cost further, and worsening the power crisis.
Khalid Mustafa, The News, June 13, 2007
http://www.thenews.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=8465
ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK CONSIDERING 250 MILLION $ LOAN FOR SMALL HYDRO PROJECTS IN PAKISTAN
Indeed a very positive development if the terms of this loan finalizes soon. Pakistan is heading for acute shortage of energy and therefore all measures which can enhance the country's ability to produce clean energy will be welcomed by all quarters.
The important question which should be looked is that how this loan will be distributed. We suggest that small packaged turbines of 10-50 KW to be assembled or manufactured in Pakistan and these turbines distributed to Local residents on easy loans. Since the turbines will be providing electricity for small group of houses therefore transmission expanses will be cut.
This addition of power will not affect the existing shortage of electricity. Because beneficiaries will be mostly those people who does not have an electrical connection. But a lager saving will be in the form of forest wood which is now used for heating and cooking.
September 9, 2007
http://www.energy.com.pk/news%20and%20views.htm
US ADVISE PAKISTAN TO PURCHASE ELECTRICITY FROM CENTRAL ASIA
The recent story in Daily Dawn reconfirms US advice to Pakistan to purchase electricity from central Asia.
We are of view that US should be persuaded to provide technical and financial assistance to manufacture Wind Turbine technology in Pakistan as well as boilers and turbines manufacturing facility which can burn low quality coal available from Sind Province.
Self reliance in Energy requirements is a key element for sustainable economic growth of Pakistan.
28 IPRI Factfile
Pakistan should have a fair treatment to explore all possible energy resources including nuclear energy for its growing energy demand.
September 9, 2007
http://www.energy.com.pk/news%20and%20views.htm
ENERGY STRATEGY
Updated 9th November 2007
Few weeks before when oil started rising we predicted that no need for panic and the oil will maintain a position between 70-76$/barrel. We were proved to be wrong.
But not us. Just last months there was not much anxiety all around the world. But now, what it looks, the world is again heading towards an energy crisis similar to 1970.
So far the surge in markets always pointed to OPEC which was blamed for throttling the production valves to regulate the market. Short term crisis were related to speculations of war and political disturbances in shipping lanes transporting the fuel. Now the situation is different.
OPEC is helpful more than ever to pump maximum oil it can deliver but the demand is growing steadily. One reason is the change in life style which came with the increase of net income in Asian countries due to economic growth tempting them to spend on luxury transportation and electronic goods. But, the major source is the rising economic growth of China and India as well as other emerging markets which need more fossil fuels to keep their industries running.
The future outlook, therefore, is the worst than expected. There is panic all over the world to explore renewable energy resources but due to high demand of machinery the delivery time is quite long.
Pakistan is caught up between a crisis. On one hand it wants to catch the growth rate at par with the region and on other hand it has already been facing the acute shortage of energy.
There are many reasons for slow growth in energy sector. But one simple reason is that many departments are responsible for energy management in Government. There is Water and Power Ministry, Oil and Gas Ministry, OGRA, AEDB, NEPRA, PPIB, WAPDA, NTDC, SHYDO and many more.
To streamline the system, this is suggested that one unified energy Ministry has to be made responsible for all energy issues and different desks are made in one roof for developers and end users.
For developers, paper work has to be made simple. The investors should be offered up front tariff and can only appeal if their real cost is enhanced by some reason. Presently, before the construction starts, investors
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 29
have to go for lengthy processes. The government should invest substantial amount for wind and solar energy and once the projects are matured then can privatise.
Updated on 3rd November 2007
ECC on Wednesday approved 5.89 cents as an upfront tariff for Hydel projects. This is a revolutionary step taken by Pakistan Government to promote and encourage the investors in Hydel sector. In fact, this is the most logical and wise step adopted by the government for energy sector. This will encourage investors to come forward in Hydel sector.
Pakistan is blessed with high mountains covered by glaciers and the rivers flowing across the country. PPIB, so far, processed 19 Hydel power projects to produce 4900 MW energy.
Now we request honorable Minister to further persuade all government agencies to facilitate that these projects can be commissioned earlier than scheduled time. For this purpose, all red tapes are to be removed as far as possible. We learnt from reliable sources that Asrit-Kedam 209 MW power project is moving with record speed and the sponsors, Yunus Brothers, are highly committed to complete the project by 2011 instead of scheduled time 2014. RSWI, the consultants, are confident that the project is very promising and can be completed ahead of schedule.
October was a month to be remembered when world oil prices shot up at record level and at the end of the month it was staying at 94$ level. It was almost certain that OGRA will allow the price hike for petrol and diesel from 1st November. However a cabinet meeting in the chairmanship of Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz overruled this decision and kept the prices same.
However, furnace prices were raised all time high by Rs 4210 /ton for domestic market. The price now stands on 34000 Rs./ton.
This price hike can be justified in the light of rising crude oil prices but for domestic market the fuel tariffs now are not so realistic.
The diesel and furnace prices are now standing at almost same level. A little intelligent power house manager can start using diesel instead of furnace which is cleaner and easier to burn or even can mix the diesel with furnace lowering its viscosity and make it more comfortable to burn.
Those diesel generators, which were running as standby generators and were less efficient, will be more attractive for end users and the furnace power plants will be shut down.
For those IPPs which run their plants on furnace, this increase will be shifted to utility company which is purchasing the power and hence to WAPDA, which is already deep in trouble.
30 IPRI Factfile
Meantime power shortage in whole country remained forcing the utility companies for load shedding. Mr. Liaqut Jatoi, Minister for water and power, called a press conference and expressed his views.
He acknowledged the shortage of 1500 MW which will continue in next summer also. He told reporters that 13 memorandum of understandings have been signed to overcome the shortfall of 1500 MW power with foreign investors and an investment of 200 billion $ will be made in power sector. He also told that government is allocated 140 billion Rupees for the development of power sector including Bhasha Dam. He also told that 100 MW electricity will be imported from Iran.
Presently we have three different critical problems in energy sectors which all need immediate attention:-
1. Current shortfall in production and availability of no standby power to meet any emergency.
2. Long term increase of shortfall with increased energy demands.
3. Rising fuel prices making the production cost high.
The projects in pipeline will start commissioning from 2014. All planning of Hydro and alternate energy is for next five years. So the biggest question now is what to do for the current situation.
This is itself promising news that in spite of political uncertainty honorable Minister finds an opportunity to address the energy sector. In our opinion, situation now is so critical that it needs a diversified approach. We have to look for all options of existing as well as alternate energy resources.
As earlier been written our existing machines are less efficient. The end users should be persuaded to replace with more efficient machines. We have to discourage use of larger cars and should develop mass transit systems in mega cities to avoid use of one car/person.
November 9, 2007
http://www.energy.com.pk/strategy.htm
PAKISTAN URGED TO IMPORT 4,000MW FROM CARS
The World Bank has advised Pakistan to start working on import of 4,000MW of cheap electricity from Central Asian states, besides working on domestic sources to overcome electricity shortage owing to a 43 per cent expected increase in demand to 20,000MW by 2010.
The World Bank estimates that Pakistan's peak demand now exceeds 14,000MW and the present installed capacity of 19,500MW has become inadequate on account of the wide variations in the water availability, which greatly reduces the firm capacity available.
"Electricity demand at the generation level is forecast to grow at 7-8 per cent per year to about 20,000MW by fiscal year 2010 and 44,700MW by 2020," a government official told Dawn quoting fresh World Bank estimates.
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 31
The country that had a comfortable supply position during the last several years has already started experiencing shortages during peak periods and "it is anticipated that if no new capacity is added, firm power shortage would amount to 5,500MW by fiscal year 2010."
The World Bank understanding that besides improving supply efficiency, demand management, addition of new hydro and thermal power stations, Pakistan should expedite importing 1,000MW from Tajikistan and Kyrgyz Republic in the first phase and then increase such imports to 4,000MW in the second phase.
These imports, the World Bank believes, have two major advantages. First, the cost of supply from Sangtuda, Rogun, Talimardjan and Kambarata power stations in the CARs would range between 2.26 cents to 3.75 cents per unit compared with existing average generation cost in Pakistan at 5.6 cents per unit.
Pakistan is now entering into contracts with independent power producers (IPPs) for thermal power generation at a tariff as high as 14 cents per unit.
Second, the attractive feature of the imports form CARs is that Pakistan's peak demand occurs in summer, when the Central Asian power systems have large surpluses from their hydroelectric generation stations.
The WB says that international financial institutions like Asian Development Bank, Islamic Development Bank and USAID and private sector companies like AES Corporation of USA and RAO UES of Russia have already indicated to be part of the project once feasibility studies currently underway are completed.
According to the government of Pakistan estimates, the country is most likely to face a major energy crisis in natural gas, power and oil in the next three to four years that could choke the economic growth for many years to come.
Pakistan's total energy requirement would increase by about 48 per cent to 80 million tons of oil equivalent (MTOE) in 2010 from about 54 MTOE currently, but major initiatives of meeting this gap are far from turning into reality. Major shortfall is expected in the natural gas supplies, the sources said.
According to official energy demand forecast the demand for natural gas, having about 50 per cent share in the country's energy consumption, would increase by 44 per cent to 39 MTOE from 27 MTOE currently.
Partly contributed by gas shortfalls, the power shortage is expected to be little over 5,250MW by 2010, a little lower than World Bank's estimates of 5,500MW. Simultaneously, oil demand would also increase by over 23 per cent to about 21 million tons in 2010 from the current demand of 16.8 million tons.
This would leave a total deficit of about nine million tons of diesel and furnace oil imports, sources said.
32 IPRI Factfile
Since the gas shortfalls were expected to be much higher, the country would need to enhance its dependence on imported oil, thus increasing pressure on foreign exchange situation, more so as international market continues to go up.
Planning Commission sources said the government had planned to add an overall power generation capacity of about 7,880MW by 2010. Of this, about 4,860MW is to be based on natural gas, accounting for 61 per cent of capacity expansion.
However, the gas-based power expansion of about 4,860MW would remain in doubt since these estimates were based on gas import options for completion in 2010, 2015 and 2020. None of these projects could achieve these deadlines.
According to World Bank estimates, the indigenous gas supply would fall from 32.6 MTOE in 2010 to 20.7 MTOE in 2025 while the gas supply-demand gap would rapidly increase as demand is expected to grow continuously, quadrupling in 2025.
Khaleeq Kiani, Dawn, November 17, 2007
http://www.dawn.com/2007/11/17/ebr4.htm
FUEL SHORTAGE MAY WORSEN POWER SITUATION
The electricity shortage that currently fluctuates between 1,000 and 3,000 megawatts is likely to worsen in a few days because of problems of transporting furnace oil and diesel through the railway system and other means.
Petroleum Ministry sources told Dawn that Pakistan State Oil (PSO) has sought federal government's permission to invoke force majeure clauses of its fuel supply agreements (FSAs) with independent power producers (IPPs) because of its inability to meet fuel requirements because damage caused to railway tracks and fuel-carrying bogies was much more than originally believed.
Force majeure clauses in FSAs and power purchase agreements allow suppliers to announce in advance that they would not meet contractual obligations because of natural calamities or conditions beyond their control.
"Availability is not a problem, all products are now in abundance but storage and movement (of oil products) is a serious dilemma," said a senior official.
PSO sources also confirmed that force majeure notices had been communicated to all independent power producers as a protective measure because a default in supply contract attracts large financial penalties that could also be a problem for the government which guaranteed these agreements. These notices would enable IPPs to serve similar notices to power companies, but hopefully the situation would improve a crisis situation averted. The
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 33
sources said that the PSO supplied more than 40,000 tons of fuel to power companies every fortnight through train but problems were also being faced in the pipeline system. The problem was compounded by non-availability of tanker lorries, the PSO sources said, adding the force majeure notices would avoid imposition of financial penalties.
The sources said that the PSO had written to the government that the railway authorities had informed them that they would not be in a position to repair the damaged infrastructure in less than 20 days, hence it would not be possible for the PSO to meet its contractual obligations.
The sources, however, said the secretary petroleum was working in coordination with the ministry of defence to make alternate arrangements, including engaging the National Logistics Cell and even the private sector because of the limited capacity of NLC.
The sources said prolonged disruption in the movement of fuel oil could also lead to shortage of other products because of 20-25 per cent reduction in capacity utilisation of refineries.
Since the uplift of fuel oil and diesel stocks and their transportation emerged as the real problem, the storage capacity of refineries was filled to the brim. As a result, they had reduced their refining capacity that could eventually lead to shortages of products in the market.
Munawar A. Baseer, managing director of Pakistan Electric Power Company (Pepco) which looks after corporate generation and distribution companies formerly run by the Wapda, told Dawn that fuel shortage was a concern but not a crisis.
He said that public sector generation companies had enough fuel for about 20 days.
Khaleeq Kiani, Dawn, January 01, 2008
http://www.dawn.com/2008/01/01/top11.htm
ENERGY CRISIS: SERIOUS AND WORSENING
Serious energy shortage, massive load-shedding and lowest ever strategic oil reserves are emerging as major risk to the economy.
The situation, it appears, will not be any better in the days ahead given the political uncertainty and policy planning failure over the last few years.
Combined with multi-layered risks including current account deficit, the critical shortage of energy — an ingredient that fuels the economic growth — has the potential to choke economic growth.
The shortfall in electricity generation did not emerge suddenly but was developing over the years as the development of cheap and indigenous energy sources was discouraged for lack of any vision. Sponsors of hydropower producers who were offered a tariff of 4.7 cents per unit under the 1997 policy
34 IPRI Factfile
were practically blocked from developing their plants at this tariff rate and offered a much lower rate of 3.3 cents per unit in 1999.
Same happened with development of coal resources. A Chinese firm that had agreed to set up a 600MW project at Thar for 5.79 cents per unit was forced to quit when the authorities refused to offer a tariff of more than 5.39 cents per unit. As a result, no power project could be set up in the last eight years. The regime never tired of criticising political governments for signing costly energy contracts (at the average rate of 5.7 cents per unit). But it allowed signing of contracts for thermal power project at a much higher tariff of up to 15 cents per unit, although none of these projects would be available to the economy in the next 6-12 months.
Likewise, the recent revelation of the country's strategic oil reserves at a precarious level clearly exposed the government's lack of vigilance and failure of energy companies to meet their contractual obligations. The strategic oil reserves for defence had also been consumed to meet shortage and thus the country's security has been exposed to great risks.
Under the fuel supply and power purchase agreements, the oil marketing firms and power generation companies - whether in the public or in the private sector – are required to maintain a minimum of 21 days of their fuel requirements. Non-compliance of such contractual obligations is subject to heavy penalties under the law. The government, too, is required under the standard operating procedures defined in the official Blue Book to ensure that it has oil stocks for at least 21 days of consumption to meet any eventuality, either a natural calamity or war or any such event.
The imperative of maintaining stocks for 21 days was highlighted by the blocking of communication routes during the violent protests following the tragic killing of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. The entire episode led to disruption of fuel supply chain that included railway, pipeline and road transport. In varying degrees, it came to light that neither the independent power producers, nor the oil marketing companies including those in the public sector had maintained sufficient stocks as required under the law.
The result would be more load shedding in the days ahead. The export growth that is already stagnating would be hit if enough energy – gas and electricity – is not ensured to the industrial sector.
The power shortage that had officially been estimated to remain in the range of 1000-2000MW during the current year has already touched 3600 MW. The economy is being run at almost 30 per cent energy shortage, which could worsen if oil supplies continue to remain short or the current disruption of oil transportation prolongs.
Wapda estimates that the country could face a power shortage of about 5,500MW by 2010. Overall, Pakistan's total energy need is expected to be around 80 million tons of oil equivalents (MTOE) in 2010, up by about 50 per cent from the current year's 54 MTOE. And since at least four out of five
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 35
major initiatives, originally planned for meeting this demand, are uncertain at present or significantly behind schedule, the shortage estimate could be anybody's guess.
Even the closure of business after sunset and reduction in street lightening did not get the desired results, leading to a massive load shedding of almost daily four hours across the country. Most of the industrial and commercial sector has also been deprived of the natural gas since the advent of winter. Energy shortage is severe and widespread in almost all areas, while different sectors contribute to each other's problems. "Natural gas, power, and oil shortages were all posing risks to the economic growth in medium to long-term period," a government official said.
A major shortfall is expected in natural gas supplies. According to an official energy demand forecast, the demand for natural gas, having about 50 per cent share in the country's energy consumption, would increase by 44 per cent to 39MTOE from 27MTOE currently. The government had planned to add an overall power generation capacity of about 7,880MW by 2010. Of this, about 4,860MW was to be based on natural gas, accounting for 61 per cent of the capacity expansion. However, the gas-based power expansion of about 4,860MW would remain in doubt since these estimates are based on three gas import options for completion in 2010, 2015 and 2020.
A major part of about 4,860 gas-based plants may not be available and the difference may be met through other costly options. Even if the physical work is started today, it will take at least seven years to complete a pipeline project and it was not clear if construction of Iran to Pakistan pipeline project could be taken in hand in the near future.
Partly contributed by gas shortfalls, the power shortage is expected to be little over 5,500MW by 2010, said a Planning Commission official, adding that the oil demand would also increase by over 23 per cent to about 21 million tons in 2010 from the current 16.8 million tons.
This would leave a total deficit of about nine million tons of diesel and furnace oil imports. Since gas shortfalls are expected to be much higher, the country would need to enhance its dependence on imported oil, increasing pressure on foreign exchange balances.
Khaleeq Kiani, Dawn, January 07, 2008
http://www.dawn.com/2008/01/07/ebr2.htm
ENERGY CRISIS IN PAKISTAN ARE GROWING RAPIDLY
President recently claimed that construction would soon begin in Karachi on one of the tallest buildings in the world. The project, according to the president, would show the world that Pakistan is a "progressive and dynamic
36 IPRI Factfile
country and we are second to none". But unless Pakistan can light that building, President claims will look silly.
Robust economic growth-rates over the past several years have encouraged Pakistan to ignore fundamental weaknesses in the economy.
Yes, Pakistan's economy is growing; that's the good news. The bad news is that with this growth comes higher energy consumption and greater pressure on the country's energy resources. Unless Pakistanis — the government, but individual citizens as well — act now, the country's future will indeed be dark, in more ways than one.
At present, demand for energy exceeds supply. Power outages and planned power cuts (euphemistically termed "load-shedding") are, for many, an everyday occurrence. In addition to their economic costs, energy shortages foster political instability. Last summer angry public protests in Karachi and riots in Liaquatabad demonstrated how close many Pakistanis are to reaching the limits of their patience. A widespread power outage affecting much of the country last September triggered panicky rumours of a coup.
Earlier this year, the opposition and the ruling parties staged nearly simultaneous protest walkouts from the Senate following a disagreement over high domestic oil prices. This unrest may be only a foretaste of things to come. Absent drastic action, Pakistan's energy situation is expected to get far worse in the years ahead.
According to the government's own figures, by 2015, eight short years from now, energy demand in Pakistan will be nearly 22 percent greater than projected supply. By 2030, this energy shortfall will be 64 percent.
What do these figures mean for Pakistanis? Higher prices, fewer jobs in a slowed economy, reduced opportunities, less comfort, heightened political turmoil.
A Pakistan with serious energy shortages will not be a pleasant Pakistan.
Today, oil and natural gas supply nearly 80 percent of Pakistan's energy needs. However, the consumption of those energy sources vastly exceeds the indigenous supply. For instance, Pakistan currently produces less than 20 percent of the oil it consumes. This fosters a dependency on imported oil that places considerable strain on the country's finances. While the present situation with respect to natural gas production is not nearly as critical, Pakistan's projected natural gas needs are expected almost to double (from 2004 levels) by 2010.
On the other hand, hydropower and coal are perhaps under-utilised today, as Pakistan has ample potential supplies of both, at a time when these resources provide for relatively little of Pakistan's energy needs. Pakistan's proven coal reserves are the world's sixth largest, and the government intends to increase the share of coal in the overall energy
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 37
mix from 7 to 18 percent by 2018 — a course that may make sense from an energy standpoint, but which carries troubling environmental implications.
Meanwhile, provincial rivalries and widespread public opposition have significantly slowed the government's plans to build dams capable of generating electricity. Many Pakistanis argue that large hydroelectric projects should be a last resort, after low-cost energy conservation measures have been fully utilised.
Nuclear power at this point accounts for barely one percent of Pakistan's energy consumption. The government has announced plans to develop a generating capability of 8,800 megawatts (MW) of nuclear energy by 2020, compared to the country's current output of less than 450 MW. But this goal is unlikely to be reached unless Islamabad is able to persuade the United States and other western countries to help it develop civilian nuclear technology, an idea certain to meet with resistance in the West.
Pakistan's renewable energy potential — hydro, wind, and solar — is substantial, although presently this potential remains largely untapped.
Escalating petroleum prices in recent years have given Pakistan an additional incentive to invest in renewable energy technologies. In 2003, the government ambitiously declared that by 2015, 10 percent of the country's total energy supply would come from renewable energy sources, and established the Alternative Energy Development Board to coordinate renewable energy promotion. Modest steps in the direction of greater reliance on renewable energy have already been taken.
Nonetheless, renewable energy labours under severe handicaps in competing with conventional energy — hidden subsidies that allow for lower conventional energy generation costs, for example, and policies that permit conventional energy to disregard the costs of the pollution it creates when pricing power. Unless renewable energy is given a level playing field, a major expansion of renewable energy generation is unlikely, and the government's goal of 10 percent by 2015 will not be met.
Rural areas across India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal have all implemented successful clean and renewable energy initiatives. Bangladesh, for instance, has experienced considerable success with solar home systems financed through micro-financing. Pakistan's neighbours have something to teach Pakistan, if only it will listen.
Pakistan's minister for petroleum and natural resources has identified energy as the most important input for the country's economic development. The uninterrupted supply of energy to fuel the nation's economy, he has declared, should be the highest priority for the country's economic managers.
Yet the record of past governments does not induce confidence. It's said by one of Pakistan's most distinguished economic analysts, has written of "a colossal failure of public policy" over six decades, which has left the country with "weak institutions, inappropriate pricing
38 IPRI Factfile
policies and insufficient public-sector investment that [has] contributed to what appears to be an inexorable march towards another crisis". Pakistan cannot afford a repetition of this sorry history.
The good news is that Pakistanis are not being asked to find a cure for cancer, or to discover entirely new methods or technologies in order to meet their energy needs down the road. There already exists widespread agreement on at least the broad outlines of an energy strategy for Pakistan. Pakistan's energy managers know what needs to be done.
But solemn promises and soaring rhetoric will not do the job. Preparing for Pakistan's energy needs over the next quarter century will require long-term vision, a national commitment widely shared among the country's political and business leaders, inspired leadership sustained from one government to the next, and most of all, political will to make and carry out difficult choices.
Pakistan — the country, not just the government of the day — needs to decide that muddling through is not enough. Pakistan, as a country, has to get serious about creating an energy strategy, and then — and this is the hard part — about implementing it.
Pakistan will not find itself alone in this task. Islamabad's friends around the world believe that it is in their own national interests for Pakistan to succeed — which means, among other things, that Pakistan succeed in its quest for energy security. At the end of the day, Pakistanis themselves must solve the problem of energy insecurity, but the outside world — both the private and the public sectors — can and will help.
Energy matters for Pakistan. If Pakistan is to succeed in its ambitious plans for economic development, if it is to raise the grossly inadequate living standards of its people, if it is to achieve the economic growth necessary to ensure political stability, if it is to begin to address the many environmental problems that up to now have been largely ignored, and which have a hugely adverse impact on the daily lives of Pakistani citizens, if it is to live in peace with its neighbours, several of whom are directly impacted by Pakistani decision-making in the energy sector, if Pakistan is to move towards all these goals, Pakistanis must get serious about energy.
Emma-Gill, January 24, 2008
http://www.articlealley.com/article_460564_22.html
EFFICIENT HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES TO MITIGATE ENERGY CRISIS
The federal government has entrusted Engineering Development Board (EDB) the task of adopting strategies in collaboration with relevant private
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 39
sector industries to enhance the efficiencies of different energy consuming household products being produced in the country.
As per the government's initiatives to overcome the energy crisis in the country, the EDB held separate meetings on Saturday with leading local manufacturers of fans and pumps and finalised a strategy which would help enhance the efficiency of these domestic products. The increased efficiency will result not only in reducing consumption of energy and help conserve energy.
The discussions focused on different aspects of the products including general design, quality of input material and the relevant benchmarks. EDB General Manager Zahid Yaqub, who chaired the meeting, informed the private sector representatives about the initiatives being taken by the government to overcome the energy crisis. One of the strategies adopted is to enhance the efficiency of different energy consuming household products.
The meeting was informed that the electricity consumption during 2005-06 was 67,603GWh, out of which 45.4 per cent was consumed by the domestic sector. It was estimated that every household in Pakistan has a minimum of two to three fans and based on this figure, the total strength of fans was over 30 million.
The President of Fan Manufacturers Association (FMA) called for reducing the rate of sales tax on various components of fans. Currently, the country has four leading manufacturers of fans as compared to nearly 200 small units manufacturing fans in different parts of the country.
The FMA president alleged that the small units were using substandard components in order to keep the price low and ignoring energy conservation.
According to the FMA statistics, the industry was manufacturing five million fans every year, out of which one million fans were exported fetching $30 million. The FMA also called for banning export of copper, the main component used in fan manufacturing.
The meeting on pumps was told that the enhancement of efficiency of motors used in domestic industrial and agricultural sectors can save 3 to 5 per cent of the total electricity consumption. It was felt that quality of copper wire and silicon steel being used and manufacturing of motors and pumps should be increased by reviewing the standards developed by the PSQCA.
The federal government has also decided to introduce standards for the manufacturing of gas geysers in order to enhance their efficiency and save energy.
The Pakistan Standards and Quality Control Authority (PSQCA) has drafted the required standards for the production of gas geysers. The standards were being sent to all chambers of commerce and industry and manufacturers for their views before finalisation.
40 IPRI Factfile
The decision to this effect was taken at a meeting chaired by EDB General Manager Zahid J. Yaqub and attended by leading manufacturers of geysers, representatives of government agencies and senior officials of SNGPL.
The meeting was informed that the energy efficiency of local geysers was much lower than the world standards. Therefore, research and development (R&D) was necessary to achieve global standard.
The industry emphasised the need of duty-free import of various components of instant water heaters in order to introduce quality products in the market. Some manufacturers showed their willingness to produce high quality products, if investment on R&D was made by the government.
ENERCON Managing Director Fareed Ullah Khan informed the meeting that the government was ready to accept any practical proposal from private sector for energy conservation.
Addressing the meeting, the EDB general manager said that the government was undertaking initiative to minimise the magnitude of the energy crisis. One of the strategies adopted is to enhance the efficiencies of the different energy consuming household products. He added that the crisis should be converted into an opportunity to introduce high quality product in the market.
Another area, which needs to be looked into, is the phasing out of inefficient incandescent bulbs in favour of more energy-efficient compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and cut household energy costs.
While CFLs are more expensive to buy than incandescent bulbs, they pay for themselves in lower power bills within a year. The switch to CFLs will result in household lighting costs falling by as much as 80 per cent, and the country's annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions falling 2 million metric tons starting in 2010.
Additionally, national electricity demand is expected to fall by 2,000 megawatts, or the equivalent of electricity generated by six power plants.
Amin Ahmed, Dawn, February 10, 2008
http://www.dawn.com/2008/02/10/ebr11.htm
COPING WITH THE ENERGY CRISIS
One of the major problems facing the new government, the energy crisis, is intense, costly and multi-dimensional. The infuriating electricity and gas disruptions and soaring fuel prices in turn pushing the cost of living have made life difficult for people. The even before it took office the new government was greeted with two jumps in fuel prices, accounting for a 15% rise in two weeks. Meanwhile, crude oil prices have been registering
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 41
all-time-highs, shooting 40% in the past year. The undeniable reality is that that this global spike will somehow have to be accommodated in energy prices in Pakistan.
There is no quick solution to electricity shortage and the trend of surging prices is irreversible. There is very little the new government can do on this in the immediate term. At best, the problem can be prevented from aggravating until a sustainable solution is struck. Tough decisions will have to be made, and executed with commitment.
The starting point of any remedial efforts should be an acknowledgement of the fact that the crisis is a self-inflicted one. It cannot be denied that something has been wrong down the line that caused this crisis. The country has nearly gone energy bankrupt while a total disaster appears to be round the corner unless pragmatism is shown. It is also important that lessons be learnt from the past mistakes on part of relevant circles. The crisis is still addressable as long as there is due vision and devotion.
The golden age for energy in Pakistan has been 1960s and most of the 1970s, that is when Tarbela and Mangla dams were put into operation and other dams, including Kalabagh, were actively pursued. In subsequent years, action in the field of energy has been utterly recklessness. The prevalent crisis is a consequence of imprudent energy policies over the last three decades.
One of the major limitations that have hindered energy prosperity in the country is short-sightedness. There has not been a meaningful and coherent energy policy in place over this period. The approach has been "project-oriented," rather than "goal-oriented." Almost every regime has dealt with energy on an ad hoc basis. Long-term and sustainable planning of energy have been an alien concept. The reason is fairly simple; energy projects usually require huge investments and commitment, making them undesirable to any regime. The attitude of delaying new projects, as far as possible, has been the common practice and is in fact the recipe of the present crises. In doing so, when things start getting out of control, haphazard and quick-fix measures are sought. A typical example is the Independent Power Producers (IPPs) saga of the 1990s. In an attempt to avert an approaching energy crisis, as a result of negligible capacity addition during the 1980s and the early 1990s, the regime in 1993-94 decided to go for thermal generation through the IPPs. Undoubtedly, the IPPs provided a very healthy contribution at the supply end, enhancing power generation capacity by more than 5000MW. Nevertheless, this power addition cost the country a fortune – apart from the controversial tariff structure, the move was against the spirit of energy sustainability and security for the country. The fact that the IPPs were set up at the terms of the investors suggest that it was a move made in panic.
42 IPRI Factfile
The last few years provide a perfect example of failure to make a timely response to the growing energy needs. A threefold increase in energy demand over the last two decades has been responded to with an ill-proportioned increment at the supply end. Consequently, with the advent of 2008 the gap between demand and supply grew to 4,500MW indicating a 40% deficit of electricity. The prevalent energy crisis has not appeared overnight -- the omens were evident for a number of years but the authorities failed to react in time. Senior WAPDA officials claim that in 2002 the government was officially warned about the approaching electricity crisis and was asked to take immediate measures to enhance generation capacity. The timely warning failed to receive any appreciation. The attitude of the relevant authorities has thus indirectly contributed to the growth of the dire crisis. Another example worth quoting here is that of the 969MW Neelam-Jehlum hydroelectric project. It was to be constructed in 2003 at a cost of $1.5 billion. It got abandoned until the present power crises intensified towards the end of 2007. The revised estimate is around $2.25 billion. The delay is costing the country a fortune – an extra $750 million in terms of project cost, apart from enormous monetary dents inflicted by the five-year delay. It is also noteworthy that WAPDA has traditionally pursued the major projects of national interest but failed to get the due positive response from the policy- and decision- makers. Interestingly, WAPDA plays the role of a scapegoat, because the common man blames WAPDA for his sufferings.
It is also important to plant relevant and qualified people at the key policy and decision making positions. Quite often, these positions are offered to utterly irrelevant, ill-qualified and incompetent people. The track record suggests that energy offices are amongst the most coveted ones in any regime, simply because they are considered to be the most lucrative ones. There are examples when undergraduate and utterly irrelevant people have been appointed to run energy offices. There are also cases when the crucial positions have been used as incentives during political bargaining. The unhealthy attitude towards sensitive energy positions is enough to explain how the field of energy has been traditionally toyed with.
Another aspect of the bankrupt policies is politicisation of projects of national interest. The paramount example is that of Kalabagh Dam. It has been politicised to such an extent that its orchestration now appears to be next to impossible. Evidences suggest that the issue has been used to serve the vested interest of regimes and certain political and ethnical forces. With the emerging post-lection sense of national reconciliation on the political arena, it is expected that such projects would be looked into with cool heads. It is time to move on. The technical issues, if there be any, have to be addressed on the drawing
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 43
board, rather in processions. It has to be realised that the delay in project has not only made the country suffer but also people that come from all provinces.
In order to tackle the existing crisis and ensure a prosperous energy future, the backbone of the future energy policies would have to be reliance on domestic resources (hydropower, coal and solar and wind energy) and energy conservation. Decisions on energy projects should revolve around national interest rather than naïve political and personal gains. Energy offices should be run by qualified, committed and deserving people equipped with due mandate. Relevant ministries and departments should also be overhauled.
The News, April 17, 2008
http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=107244
IRANIAN, PAKISTANI PRESIDENTS RESOLVE PIPLINE ISSUES
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his Pakistani counterpart Pervez Musharraf on Monday cleared all hurdles over a gas pipeline to India and agreed to sign a deal soon, state media said. Ahmadinejad discussed the 7.5-billion-dollar project to transport Iranian gas across the subcontinent while making a short stopover in Islamabad on the first leg of a whirlwind tour of South Asia. "The two leaders expressed satisfaction over the resolution of all issues that had delayed a final agreement," Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi was quoted as saying by the official Associated Press of Pakistan. Qureshi added that the Iranian and Pakistani presidents had tasked their foreign ministers to agree on a "mutually convenient date for signing the agreement" after their hour-long talks in Islamabad. Iran also agreed to provide 1100 MW of electricity to Pakistan to help it overcome a recent power shortage, particularly in areas adjoining Iran, the news agency said. Musharraf and Ahmadinejad also discussed the situation in neighbouring Afghanistan, which is battling a Taliban insurgency, and "stressed that peace and stability was vital for the region", APP reported. Ahmadinejad later held talks with new prime minister Yousaf Raza Gilani, his first meeting with an official from a new government that took power last month after defeating Musharraf's allies in elections. The Iranian president arrived on Monday morning at Chaklala Airbase in Rawalpindi, a garrison city adjoining Islamabad, and was greeted by an air force honour guard and received bouquets from a young boy and girl. He is on his way to Sri Lanka later Monday and will also visit India in coming days.
Dawn, April 28, 2008
http://www.dawn.com/2008/04/28/welcome.htm
44 IPRI Factfile
TIES WITH IRAN
The decision reached in Islamabad on Monday between the visiting Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and President Musharraf to sign the accord on Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline augurs well for all concerned. The longstanding project delayed by reservations expressed by India and disputes over tariff and transit fees can now finally take off the ground. Pakistan's rising energy needs face a shortage, and in addition to future gas supply, Iran's offer to wire in 1,100 MW of electricity is godsend. At Pakistan's initiative, another trilateral deal envisaging the supply of gas to China through this country is also a good omen for regional cooperation that will work to everyone's benefit. On the political front, the pumping of Iranian gas into Pakistan, India and China at a time when the US opposes such dealings with Iran's Islamic regime is significant. It is an assertion of independence in international relations on the part of the countries concerned and their refusal to be dictated to by Washington, because it arguably works against their own economic and diplomatic interests. The accord reached with Iran also dispels the impression that Pakistan's earlier signing of another gas supply deal with Turkmenistan via Afghanistan was an alternative to the IPI deal.
All this has profound implications for Pakistan and South Asia. Iran is an important neighbour with which the people of the subcontinent have enjoyed historical relations. It is a major regional player in the bordering Middle East commanding a naval presence in the strategic Strait of Hormuz from where the bulk of the world's oil passes. On the other side of the fence, even the US, despite all its opposition to Tehran's Islamic regime and its nuclear programme, cannot deny the importance of engaging Iran if it wants to cool off tensions in Iraq. It is a measure of the failure of American foreign policy that Russia and China should continue to carry out their dealings with Iran, including in the controversial nuclear energy sector as far as Moscow is concerned, and India should snub Washington's suggestion, as it recently did, to ask Iran to roll back its nuclear programme. Tehran has insisted all along that its programme is for peaceful purposes. President Musharraf's reiteration of support on the subject to his Iranian counterpart is reassuring.
Recent developments taking place in the region whereby American efforts to diplomatically isolate Iran have been snubbed should be seen in the context of growing interdependence of countries upon one another and not as being geared towards furthering the imperatives of a unipolar world — as Washington wishes to see it. All this means that there will be quite a bit of catching up to do for the post-Bush American administration if it wants to take the rest of the world along on many global issues.
Dawn, April 30, 2008
http://www.dawn.com/2008/04/30/ed.htm
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 45
POWER CRISIS & ALTERNATE ENERGY TECHNOLOGY
The Energy Minister's statement that country will have to face the current energy crisis for next three years shows that he is unable to alleviate the misery of average Pakistani family and expects them to conduct daily routine chores in extreme summer heat without eight to sixteen hours of electricity. It brings us to : 1) Energy Minister has failed to come up with a solution to end energy crisis including nationalization of energy sector and adoption of alternate energy. 2) Which law permits country's rulers to enjoy uninterrupted supply of electricity while the public who they serve suffers due to load shedding for no fault of their own?
Can PM justify uninterrupted supply of electricity in VIP pockets across the country while average Pakistanis face unending power rationing? Similarly, will the rulers clarify for the ordinary people which law allows backup generators for hundreds and thousands of such VIPs nationwide whose number is growing by the hour? Shouldn't the country's law lords be taking suo moto notices to end generator culture by unveiling number of generators being used for the VIPs, how much they cost to the national exchequer annually and which law authorizes the procurement, maintenance and fueling. There is no provision in country's laws that authorize spending and regularization of billions of tax-rupees being wasted on the procurement, running and maintenance of these illegal generators.
It is hoped concerned including Public Accounts Committee, citizen watch groups, legal fraternity will help country's courts and PM to end wastage of tax dollars amidst reports that current 522 billion fiscal deficit will climb to 957 billion by the end of fiscal year 2007/8 and an another impending fuel prices increase before June 30. Thereby rendering immediate borrowing of some three billion US dollar loan to sustain country's (failing) economy. These figures, energy minister's statement of requiring three-year gestation period for permanently ending long hours of load shedding and instead calling for adoption of energy conservation measures mandate PMs intervention to end the misery of an average Pakistani who has been forced to face summer heat and humidity for no fault of his own and pay for national policy failure and corruption.
PM to show genuine support for people's plight and as part of austerity drive should ordering following steps to end corruption in electricity and gas departments: 1) Inclusion of all VIP areas across the country including Islamabad into the current load shedding schedule. 2) Across the board removal of generators and air-conditioning/heating systems from govt. offices and residences to end VIP culture and save energy consumption. 3) Withdraw subsidized/free electricity/gas for public servants, office holders and govt. departments because it encourages waste and negates basic spirit of country's
46 IPRI Factfile
law. Otherwise, also lawmakers and govt. employees as public servants cannot have free gas and electricity paid by tax money, which is not extended to the masses. 4) The energy consumption of country's domestic sector is less than total consumption of free electricity given to govt. sector. Therefore, PM should direct energy minister to save 500 MW by withdrawing free electricity from VIPs instead of forcing load shedding at grassroots. In fact the national leadership to set a personal example should share equal hours of load shedding if not more.
Energy Minister in his statement on the floor of the house said that 50/100 MW of electricity will be generated from wind turbines. The amount reflects PPPP's flawed energy policy stressing on long and midterm plans thereby failing to provide immediate relief to masses. PM should issue immediate directions to incorporate feasible alternate energy technology based on alternate energy mapping for following reasons: 1) it can provide quick and sustainable solution for domestic sector that consumes less than 13% of total generated electricity. 2) In- step with international policy replace 20-25 percent of fossil fuel based current energy generation with alternate energy. 3) Cut fossil fuel imports to reduce foreign currency expenditure. 4) the 'plug and play' and main grid compatibility of these alternate energy options can alleviate misery of masses suffering the heat at grassroots due to 8/16 hour protracted load shedding schedules.
Therefore, it is need of the hour to permanently shift country's domestic and agriculture sectors to alternate energy to permanently end load shedding, reduce electricity bills and cut costs on import of ever increasing fuel prices. In this regard, state of the art affordable wind turbines, solar panels, photovoltaic panels can play an important role to help realize the objectives: 1) The 'plug and play' and 'grid ready' alternate energy technology can bring immediate relief at grassroots and end three year waiting period. 2) These alternate energy solutions are cheaper because: (a) Due to their proximity to consumers it reduces line losses, which in turn reduces energy cost. For example, the alternate energy helps cut line losses internationally accepted standards of 5-7% against Pakistan's reported line losses exceeding 45 percent of total production, (independent observers put at 65%), which in turn forces per unit electricity prices increase to recover cost of lines losses and thefts.(b) It will allow energy generation at districts, tehsils and individual level, which in turn will help end corruption at all levels and cut over head costs. 3). Cheaper energy will promote small/medium industrial and manufacturing setups with multiple advantages including generation/sustenance of millions of jobs. 4) Cheaper sustainable alternate energy solutions will support and sustain country's agri-sector offering critical advantages including produce increase and increasing employment opportunities. 5) Reduce energy related disputes between federation and provinces. The fact of the matter is alternate energy as highlighted in my article 'time for nationalized energy sector',
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 47
http://pakobserver.net/200804/17/Articles03.asp is a cheaper and with 50,000 MW growth potential is the sustainable way forward to end load shedding, provide relief at grassroots and meet international standards of 'greener earth' as part of cleaner global environment. However, it is the mindset than actual challenges in energy field that needs to be addressed as highlighted in my article 'energy crisis and corruption nexus' dated 7 Jan. http://www.pakobserver.net/200801/07/Articles04.asp. PM need to help end corruption and stakes blocking adoption of alternate energy to provide relief to masses, uplift agri-sector and facilitate country's economic progress. In this regard Nawaz Sharif can play an important role by promoting adoption of alternate energy in Punjab. The model in turn can be copied by the rest of the country to provide relief to masses, sustain and generate growth and jobs in country's agri-sector. In short 4200 MW can be generated by 1600 wind turbines with each generating of 3 MWs. The shift to alternate energy can help Pakistan save 300 billion rupees (4.6 billion dollars) being paid in annual subsidies to energy companies at the rate of 25 billion rupees per month. The purchase of 1600 wind turbines should cost around 0.192 billion dollars (1600 x $1,20,000 per piece) which is not only fraction of 4.6 billion dollars being currently paid under subsidy head but will also cut expenditure on import of costly furnace oil and ease pressure on foreign reserves etc. Logically, the adoption of alternate energy technology should reduce per unit cost with every passing year. All this makes sense in wake of growing oil prices.
Finally, it is need of the hour to provide relief at grassroots by incorporating available alternate energy technologies in national energy policy. It will help agri-sector and the industrial sector can be facilitated to adopt alternate energy technology. It will help reduce expenditure on fuel imports and foreign reserve.
The nationalization of energy sector and adoption of alternation energy technology can go hand in hand with already approved long and medium term policies and projects based on traditional resources of energy generation.
Rizwan Ghani, Pakistan Observer, May 3, 2008
http://pakobserver.net/200805/03/Articles04.asp
GOVT CALLS IPPS MEETING TO TACKLE POWER CRISIS
The coalition government has called a high level meeting of chief executives of all Independent Power Producers (IPPs) to seek their assistance in tackling the issue of power shortages prevailing in the country.
The meeting will be held on Friday (today) at Pakistan Private Power Infrastructure Board (PPIB) and would be chaired by Federal Minister for Water and Power, Raja Pervez Ashraf. Water and Power Development
48 IPRI Factfile
Authority (WAPDA) and Pakistan Electric Power Company (PEPCO) officials would also attend the meeting.
IPPs are still generating around 4,000MW to 4,500MW per day against 5,728MW power per day as agreed with government. During last year, the power generation by IPPs stood at 5,500MW per day that has dropped during the current season.
The country is said to face a power shortfall of over 3000MW per day as the demand of electricity had shot up to 15,000MW per day. The Independent Power Producers (IPPs) are generating 4,500MW power per day and hydel generation stands at 3,500MW per day whereas the total power generation stands at 11,500MW per day.
Sources said that with the passage of time, the power generation capacity of the IPPs is declining, the major reason of power shortfall. Sources said that IPPs would be asked to generate power as per agreement with the government and also to extent their operations to overcome the power shortages.
Sources said that the IPPs defaults have piled up to Rs 25.3 billion and they have demanded the Federal Government to intervene for paying immediately. Sources said that Independent Power Producers (IPPs) have threatened PEPCO for suspending power generation. Sources said that the meeting would review the payment of dues to IPPs.
Due to circular debt among different stakeholders including Pakistan State Oil (PSO), PEPCO, KESC and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) have become the main reason for low generation of power in the country, sources said. Hub Power Company (HUBCO), the major power generation and supply company has threatened PEPCO to pay its arrears on the account of purchasing power otherwise it would suspend the power supply.
HUBCO is to pay Rs 2 billion dues to PSO for the provision of furnace oil to HUBCO. PSO had resumed the fuel supply to HUBCO after obtaining the letter of comfort from Water and Power Ministry. On the other side, HUBCO claims that it has to receive billion of rupees dues from the PEPCO for provision of power, sources added.
Zafar Bhutta, Daily Time, May 9, 2008
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008%5C05%5C09%5Cstory_9-5-2008_pg5_4
COMPETING FIRMS COMPLETE FEASIBILITY REPORTS
The two international firms in fray for constructing a 1,000MW power plant, which will use imported coal as fuel, have completed feasibility studies, an official told The News on Saturday.
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 49
AES Corporation of US and Japanese Mitsui Group were short-listed in December 2006 to prepare two separate feasibility reports for Pakistan's first such power plant.
"Negotiations for power tariff will get underway in a couple of weeks," said the official, who works for Private Power Infrastructure Board (PPIB). "I cannot specify how much that is going to be, but it will be around NEPRA's tariff for indigenous coal-fired power plants."
Pakistan is facing an electricity shortfall of 3000MW per day, and spends billions of rupees annually to import fuel oil to run its thermal power plants.
The decision to generate power using imported coal was based on assumptions that not only will it help in meeting demand, the cost of coal will always be lower than oil's.
National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) has given an upfront tariff of US7.8 cents per kilowatt hour (kWh) for Thar coal-fired power plants. However, this tariff differs greatly from what the investors will want for a power plant based on imported coal.
Landed cost of imported coal has surged to $130 per tonne from $60 a year ago. Any tariff based on this coal will reflect the price fluctuation, unlike the upfront tariff offered by NEPRA.
NEPRA's tariff has been calculated on the basis of a report prepared by a German firm RWE in 2004. RWE has recommended a leveled tariff of 7.1 cents per kWh for 40 years.
Abdul Basit Mehta, a local representative of RWE, said the tariff was calculated after taking into consideration the costs associated with mining and generation. There is no variable component in the tariff, he added.
NEPRA's tariff seems lucrative from RWE's point of view, but Hassan Associate, which has proposed the mining of Thar coal and using it for a 1000MW power plant, sees it unfeasible.
"Cost of machinery and equipment has increased manifolds in the last few years," a company official said. "Anything below 10.5 cents will be unacceptable."
The company had initially demanded 11.1 cents, but had to revise down the tariff after the government's refusal.
It is prudent to recall again, that back in 2005 a Chinese company had agreed to undertake the capital-intensive project at 5.7 cents. That tariff was rejected and the company left.
Pakistan is fighting to catch the elusive dream of utilising cheap source of energy since 1992, which was the year when it was discovered that Thar District is sitting over 175 billion tonnes of coal reserves.
The News, May 11, 2008
http://www.thenews.com.pk/print1.asp?id=111829
50 IPRI Factfile
GOVT TO INVITE BUSINESSMEN TO DISCUSS POWER CRISIS
Federal Minister for Kashmir Affairs, Northern and Information Technology Qamar uz Zaman Qaira has said the government has decided to convene a special Cabinet meeting to cope with ongoing energy crisis.
"All the relevant experts and chambers would also be invited for suggestions over the issue which now has started taking its toll," he expressed these views while speaking at Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) on Saturday.
Minister said the present government was taking all possible measures to bridge the gap between demand and supply of electricity. Due to acute shortage of power, not only the industry, the common man was also suffering.
He said all the issues had been discussed threadbare in all the four Cabinet meetings held so far.
He said to develop IT infrastructure, the government has divided the country into 14 regions and aggressive investments would be made to equip 1400 cities and villages with Information Technology that do not have access to IT.
He said the government has introduced scholarships for the promotion of Information Technology.
On the issue of Kashmir, the Federal Minister said that sometimes, informal diplomacy can do the miracles and business community should use its good offices for a breakthrough in this regard.
Federal Minister said steps were on way to promote trade between Indian occupied Kashmir and Azad Jammu Kashmir that would definitely help bring the people of two sides further closer.
He said special attention was also being given towards vocational training and skill development, as the industry was heavily suffering because of the shortage of skilled labour.
Referring to atta prices, he said there was an anomaly in the provision of subsidy. Equal subsidy was being given on atta used by the rich and the poor. Things are being sorted out to ensure benefit to the poor alone.
LCCI president, Mohammad Ali Mian stressed the need for early solution of Kashmir issue. He said no Confidence Building Measure (CBM) would work unless the issue of Kashmir is resolved.
Daily Times, May 11, 2008
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008%5C05%5C11%5Cstory_11-5-
2008_pg5_16
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 51
ENTANGLED IN ENERGY WEB
Commendable developments have materialized lately on various avenues of energy sector in Asia with countries fostering forward their collaborations for fulfilling their energy requirements. The dream of making Asian gas grid could transform the quest for energy by Asian economies into a cooperative, not conflictive enterprise. Regional actors entangled subjectively in energy web of interdependence, could generate far-reaching effect on the security, stability and development of the region. Hence, locking their positions by working together in a manner of complex correlation.
The outcome of this interconnectedness would determine the future course of economics, politics, inter-state relationships, economic cooperation and security status of the region as a whole. With growing oil prices skyrocketing, Asian country's thrust for cheaper imported gas has acquired a greater urgency than ever before. In order to fulfill energy requirements, countries like Pakistan, India, Iran and China have leaned their thrust even to develop civilian nuclear technology to meet the needs of ever expanding economies. Nowadays, we are totally dependent on an abundant and uninterrupted supply of energy for living and working. It is a key ingredient in all sectors of modern economies. It is high time that we must secure our future in the growing state of depleting energy resources.
As the new energy world order dawned with momentum in Asia, several key benchmarks have been achieved on aspired projects of IPI (India-Pakistan-Iran) and TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) gas pipelines. These pipelines can be more appropriately called as "life lines" to the industry and economies of Asian subcontinent and beyond. Countries involved in both either IPI or TAPI had serious reservations involved, which had descended them to remain reluctant in pursuing the projects. We are still in the state of wilderness as yet the projects, which have actually set foot in early 90s or later failed to materialize as yet. Both projects got badly snagged in international and regional politics. But latest signing of "Government Framework Agreement" in Islamabad to initiate TAPI project, readmission of India in IPI, workable agreement between Pakistan and India on transit fee, recent agreement on IPI to draft the final phase of the project and finally signing an accord, depicts active assertion of the stakeholders to remove the impediments on the way.
Both projects (IPI) and (TAPI) would provide the gas to the Asian developing countries including Pakistan, India, China and beyond the region. These states have limited oil/liquid reserves to meet their
52 IPRI Factfile
demands. With rocketing prices and limited supply of oil, signifies the option of gas which is cheaper, cleaner and plentiful, and in an increasingly environmentally conscious world, developed countries see this as an attractive alternative to oil and mineral fuels. Hence, oil-producing states of Persian Gulf are striving to develop their gas supplies to supplement their dwindling oil reserves. While the landlocked El Dorados of Central Asia offer the energy hungry burgeoning economies to invest and evolve effective methods to transfer the resources. These states have abundance of proven and unproven gas and oil reserves anticipating to be explored. It is quite mandatory for the states to develop the national strategies for robust exploration of not only indigenous resources but require enhancing by trans-national energy options to meet the constraints.
TAPI gas pipeline project, would begin from the Dauletabad gas field (Turkmenistan), and runs through Herat, Kandhar (Afghanistan), Quetta, Multan (Pakistan) and the final destination of the pipeline will be the Indian town of Fazilka, near the border between India and Pakistan. The total length of the pipeline would be 1,680 kilometer will be built and operated by a consortium of national oil companies from the four countries, furthermore the cost of the project was just over 3$billion in 2003; today it is $7.6billion. The pipeline is to begin its operations in 2015, if all the contending issues are to be resolved. The pipeline will transport 33 billion standard cubic meter (scm) gas from the Dauletabad gas field. There will be six compressor stations along the entire length of the pipeline and it will have to be guarded by the states they pass through, apart from the pipeline. The largest stretch will fall to the share of Pakistan, between Quetta and Multan and the Indian border. ADB provided the financial assistance of 1.0$ million for the feasibility study of the project.
Several major risks were proving as impediments in materializing the TAPI project. Security of the pipeline is the most important in this regard, as it passes through the tumultuous region of Afghanistan, where the security situation is far more satisfactory. Turkmenistan requested UN to adopt a new convention guaranteeing pipeline security. The proposal represents the abandonment of fiercely nationalist policy adopted by Niyazove. Turkmenistan's claims of having reserves of more than 25 trillion cubic feet need to certify through an independent auditor. Issues like that of consortium formation, legal and regulatory framework, and issues of gas sales and purchase agreements need to be resolved at earnest. Political discords among the regional and international powers related to US support to TAPI project due to contentious relations with Iran, Pakistan and India's conflicts and disagreements on various issues and
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 53
Pakistan's constrained relations with Afghanistan are proving as hindrance on the way.
The rival IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India) pipeline, conceptualized in 1989, have the potential to link Persian Gulf with roaring economies of Far East. The proposed pipeline would deliver gas from Assalouyeh in southern Iran through Balochistan and Sindh provinces of Pakistan and then to India. This pipeline was smudged and hampered by conflicting issues ranging from security to pricing and finalizing the framework. Length of pipeline runs 1700 miles with 3.2 billion cubic feet per day of Iranian gas to Pakistan and 2.1 billion cubic per day to India by 2011 moreover the cost of the project is nearly 7-8 $billion. To settle the major issues apropos of pricing, Iran demands that clause to revise the gas price every three years to be incorporated into the agreement, which both India and Pakistan disagreed.
If substantiate effectively, then IPI pipeline would also assert and depict independent foreign policies adopted by Pakistan and India on issues of high priority related to energy with certainly wanting to break from the pressure to abort the plan. With sever warning to India against joining the project by the US because of Iran, still it demonstrated sign of thrust to move forward for the project. Even US lured India to have the much-aspired civilian nuclear deal to meet its growing energy demands. However later early this year, when India shows reluctance in the IP project, Pakistan declared that China would become part of the project and convert into (IPC). This proclamation sent quaver to India. While depending on the feasibility of the project, China illustrated keen interest in making this a reality with having necessary expertise and resources. With growing demand at domestic markets soaring, and involvement of China led India to participate with revised sense of urgency.
For India and Pakistan, it is difficult to show the same level of consent on the IPI because of the divergent foreign policies and priorities involved. Pakistan has deep rooted and closer relations with Iran and support on various issues either nuclear or forming a regional energy grid. Pakistan clearly realized that Iran sees the IPI as both a source of valuable foreign exchange as well as warding off the mounting US and other western powers to isolate Iran on its nuclear enrichment foreign policy. For both states, it would be appropriate to understand the emerging reality that in near future the solution to Afghan problem is far from being a reality and TAPI project is less likely to be practically implemented. Even option was propounded that instead of TAPI, a revised TIPI (Turkmenistan-Iran- Pakistan -India) may be plotted. This is actually more feasible and viable solution, with less troubles for the project.
Analysis reveals that on one hand if IPI project carries greater political price for both Pakistan and India than on the other TAPI had
54 IPRI Factfile
been put on hold because of security and sensitive areas on the way. But the fact remains that nearly all roads which provides energy security in Asia lead from Tehran. Iran's ability to act as an energy corridor for the sub-continent and salient importance of Iran is indisputable. In the rapidly intensifying international energy competition, Iran holds the master key to the most staggering political and economic roadblock that impedes the economic growth. The problems wont be solved while isolating Iran but close and competitive environment leads to prosperity of the Conclusively, the fact remained which must be kept in mind is that TAPI and IPI would be operational in domains of disorder lying between economically upward regions. Afghanistan as reluctantly been controlled but still has the seeds of insurgency expected to be blossoming this summer as illustrated by the attack on President Hamid Karzai with loud and clear message of " strike any where in the world". On the other hand Pakistan present shaky coalition government has been involved in settling the domestic political instability with paying merge attention to resolve the economic issues. Therefore it can be concluded TAPI and IPI could not become good devices of leverage unless and until Pakistan is to set its house in order and become a normal, democratic and stable state.
Farhat Akram, The Nation, May 12, 2008
http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Business/12-May-2008/Entangled-in-energy-web/1
MEETING HELD TO DISCUSS PAKISTAN'S ENERGY CRISIS
Pakistan's federal cabinet yesterday convened a special meeting here to discuss the worsening energy situation and decided that all commercial markets will be closed at 9 pm while clocks will be set one hour ahead from June 1 till the end of August.
The objective of the whole exercise is to save energy in the peak summer season. The move of setting the clock an hour ahead that had failed twice first during the term of prime minister Banazir Bhutto and then in the last government headed by President Pervez Musharraf is now being tried again to get the desired goal of saving energy.
This means the sun rise in Islamabad will be at 6:05 am instead of 5:05 am and sun set at 8:05 pm instead 7:05 pm. Presided over by Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, the cabinet also decided that international bids will be invited to generate 1,200 mega watts (MW) of electricity on fast track basis.
The industrial zones across the country will start observing holidays on rotation basis to share the load on electricity while air conditions (ACs) in all government offices will not be turned on from 8 am to 11 am during this period. Half of the street lights will also remain off on alternative basis during
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 55
these three months. The government will also import 10 million energy saving bulbs to promote the culture of energy conservation.
This summer (June-August), Pakistan is facing 4000MW of electricity shortages worse than the last year after a 50 per cent (2500MW) drop in hydel generation due to less water in rivers and slower melting down of snows on the mountains, Water Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf said while briefing the newspersons on the cabinet meeting. He said from July international bids will be invited for production of 1200 MW on fast track basis.
These bids will be offered at the existing rates (considered cheaper) of the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) in order to attract investment.
However, this offer will be closed as soon as the government achieved the generation target of 1200 MW.
The water minister said the power generation tendering and production process took three years or more, but the government has decided to accomplish it within a year-and-a-half.
Khaleej Time, May 16, 2008
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticleNew.asp?section=business&xfile=data/business/2008/may/business_may560.xml
GOVT TAKING STEPS TO OVERCOME ENERGY CRISIS
The government is taking all necessary steps to overcome the ongoing energy crisis, as it is well aware of the sufferings of masses and the difficulties being faced by the industry, said Raja Riaz, a senior Punjab Minister.
At closing ceremony of two-day LCCI SME Fair 2008, he said, a crash energy conservation plan had already been rolled-out by the federal government to bridge demand-supply gap. He squarely blamed the previous government for the energy shortage, "Had a go-ahead been granted to smaller power projects around 600 MW electricity in yester years, the situation would have been far better." Look at India, it had built scores of dams during all these years, he added.
He said LCCI SME Fair and the seminar would help further consolidate businesses in Pakistan. Mohammad Ali Mian urged Minister to evolve all the future business policies after having due consultation with the stakeholders as in the past this practice was hardly seen anywhere.
He said a number good policies in the past could not give desired results for want of due attention towards their implementation. On energy crisis, he urged the Minister to tap alternate energy resources because it would help curtail government's import bill, which was going up with every passing day due to high oil prices in the international market.
56 IPRI Factfile
He said Federal government should immediately start construction of big water reservoir including Kalabagh Dam.
Daily Times, May 17, 2008
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008%5C05%5C17%5Cstory_17-5-2008_pg5_18
ENERGY CONSERVATION PLAN TO COMBAT SHORTAGE: MINISTER
Senior Punjab Minister Raja Riaz has said the government is well aware of the sufferings of masses and the difficulties being faced by the industry. In that regard, he said, a crash energy conservation plan had already been announced by the federal government to bridge the demand-supply gap.
The minister was speaking at the closing ceremony of a two-day SME Fair-2008, organised by the Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry, at the LCCI late on Thursday night.
The minister squarely blamed the previous government for the energy shortage, saying in 1994 a plan was chalked out to produce 600 megawatts of electricity by building small power projects on canals but the plan could not get go ahead due to unknown reasons.
"Had a go-ahead been granted to these smaller power projects in yesteryears, the situation would have been far better." Look at India, it had built scores of dams during all these years, he added.
Speaking on the small and medium enterprises, the minister praised the Lahore Chamber for supplementing government's efforts for bringing an economic turnaround. The LCCI SME Fair and the seminar would help further consolidate businesses in Pakistan, he added.
In his address, LCCI President Mohammad Ali Mian urged the senior minister to evolve all future business policies after consultation with the stakeholders as in the past that practice was hardly seen anywhere. He said a number of good policies in the past could not give desired results for want of due attention to their implementation.
On energy crisis, he urged the minister to tap alternative energy resources because it would help curtail government's import bill which was going up due to high oil prices in the international market.
Due to the shortage of electricity, he said, not only the industry was heavily suffering but it was feared that the unemployment graph could further go up.
Mohammad Ali said infrastructure played an important role in the industrial growth of any country and there was a need for the government to
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 57
expedite up gradation of infrastructure that would not only encourage local investors but would also help attract foreign investment.
The LCCI president also suggested to the minister to widen the scope of Businessmen-Police Liaison Committee by including all the industrial areas in it as an improved law and order situation was a prerequisite to investment.
The News, May 17, 2008
http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=113008
DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP INCREASES DRAMATICALLY TO 415MW
The electricity demand-supply gap in the city increased phenomenally to 415 Megawatts (MW) on Tuesday, after Karachi lost electricity from its nuclear power plant at KANUPP, officials concerned told The News.
This shortfall is probably the highest recorded here during the current season. The total demand of power in Karachi during the last 24 hours was 2,228MW.
A KANUPP spokesman said that the plant, which supplies 80MW to the Karachi Electric Supply Company (KESC) tripped at around 10:20 a.m. Tuesday due to the loss of KESC transmission lines.
Meanwhile, KESC officials said that Unit no. 6 of the Bin Qasim Thermal Power Plant has also been non-functional for the past couple of days, but would be online soon after the requisite repairs and maintenance.
The ever-widening demand-supply gap means that almost every residential and commercial part of Karachi has been coming under prolonged and multiple spells of power load-shedding lasting over two-and-a-half hours each. These continue toll late into the night.
Moreover, several areas of the city have experienced prolonged and recurring spells of power breakdown since Monday evening because system overload has caused the transmission and distribution mechanisms for electric supply in those areas to go haywire.
Probably the worst electric supply situation during the last 24 hours in the city was in Federal B. Area Block-20 near the Edhi Centre. Residents of the area suffered power breakdowns after midnight Monday, and the electricity supply had not been restored until 05:00 p.m. Tuesday.
Another complainant from Grey River Flats near the Korangi Creek said that the residential complex had gone without electricity from 01:00 p.m. to 05:00 p.m. on Tuesday. This was after recurring and prolonged power failures from Monday evening till Tuesday morning.
Moreover, several parts of Malir, DHA, Lyari, PECHS, Gulistan-e-Jauhar, and Gulishan-e-Iqbal reportedly suffered hours-long power failures till
58 IPRI Factfile
Tuesday evening due to serious faults in the systems and installations of power transmission and distribution.
In addition to this, several sprawling residential areas of the city, especially in the suburban parts, have been running dry for past couple of days because the prolonged spells of power breakdown and load-shedding have equally affected the water supply installations of the Karachi Water & Sewerage Board (KWSB).
The News, May 21, 2008
http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=113882
PAKISTAN FACING ACUTE POWER SHORTAGE
Pakistan is facing an acute power shortage that is hurting the economy, the minister of water and power warned, noting the need for conservation.
Raja Pervaiz Ashraf said the shortage comes with the onset of severe summer, the state-run Associated Press of Pakistan reported Wednesday.
Because of the shortage, electricity supply to homes is cut for several hours a day, further raising the people's misery index. Some estimates say the shortage may be as much as 4,000 megawatts, at a time when Pakistan is also gripped by soaring food prices.
Ashraf, a member of Pakistan's new ruling coalition that took over in March after months of violence and political instability, said the government is determined to resolve the issue.
Under an energy management plan to conserve power use, all commercial centers and markets are to be closed by 9 p.m.
Ajmal Baloch, president of a trade union, told APP that during the summer, shoppers prefer to come to markets at night and a 9 p.m. closing time would greatly inconvenience them.
He said people do not come to markets on official holidays, and the government's decision to close them on Fridays instead of on Sundays would further hurt business activities.
Despite attractive investment opportunities in a country of 160 million whose political climate is improving, rating agencies seem reluctant to raise their numbers on Pakistan because of the continuing insurgency, especially in tribal areas suspected to be Taliban and al-Qaida hideouts, residual political uncertainty and macroeconomic problems including shortages, growing fiscal deficits and soaring inflation.
Iranian Energy Minister Parviz Fattah is due to visit Pakistan later this month to discuss a proposal to supply 1,100 MW of electricity to the South Asian nation.
Iran's state-owned Islamic Republic News Agency has said during the recent visit of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to Pakistan, Iran renewed its
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 59
offer to supply 1,100 MW of electricity to help meet Pakistan's energy needs, especially at the Gwadar port in Balochistan province and neighboring areas.
Iran currently provides 35 MW of electricity along the Pakistan-Iran border.
IRNA said Pakistan's conservation measures are designed to save 500 MW. It said Pakistani industrial units are being told to stagger their weekly holidays.
May 21, 2008
http://www.upi.com/Energy_Resources/2008/05/21/Pakistan_facing_acute_power_shortage/UPI-42941211408928/
RENEWABLE RESOURCES MUST TO COUNTER ENERGY CRISIS
Tapping of renewable energy resources of wind, solar and bio-fuels is necessary to resolve the prevailing energy crisis and reduce the growing trade deficit.
Environment Protection Department Additional Secretary Dr Zafar Abdullah stated this while speaking at a seminar on 'Clean Energy for Safe Environment and Sustainable Development' here at a local hotel on Wednesday. EPD Director General Dr Shagufta Shahjehan chaired the seminar.
Dr Zafar said that renewable energy resources were cost efficient and environment friendly. He said that only technology was needed to tap these resources available in abundance.
Former NESPAK General Manager Sabir Ali Bhatti said that power shortage was resulting in economic loss of 3 billion dollars per annum. The country was facing power shortage of over 4,000 MWs whereas it could generate 10,000 MW from coal alone. China was generating 80 per cent of power required by it from coal but Pakistan was yet to acquire the technology.
He said that Pakistan was not utilising its hydel power potential also. Water flowing from Tarbela Dam can be easily stored by building a dam at Kalabagh. Wapda was forced to purchase thermal power from private companies at much higher rates on the pressure of international financial institutions. He said that Indus River System alone had hydle power potential of 35,000 MWs but the country was facing a shortage of 4,000 MW. Wapda was losing Rs 52 billion per annum by purchasing fuel at the rate of Rs 35,000 per ton and supplying it to the IPPs at the rate of Rs 5,000 per ton under a forced agreement.
He said that the World Bank had opposed execution of hydel power projects by Wapda because these would have affected import of
60 IPRI Factfile
power generation equipment from the developed countries. Pakistan had the third largest coal reserves in the world and could use the same for generating power like Iran, India and China by acquiring the technology.
Pakistan Council of Renewable Energy Technologies Deputy Director Irfan Yousaf said that a 700 MW wind power generation project had been launched at Gharo in coastal area of Sindh. Solar energy projects were being launched in Northern Punjab and Sindh. India was generating 9,000 MNWs from wind whereas Pakistan had a potential to generate 50,000 MW from its 1046 kilometre coastline.
NCA Professor Dr Sohail Qureshi said that historical buildings were energy efficient and environment friendly because of utilisation of indigenous materials and technology. The old building tradition had, however, made synonymous with backwardness and replaced by the new one causing maximum energy wastage. Sustainable architecture was required to be energy efficient.
The Nation, May 22, 2008
http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Regional/Lahore/22-May-2008/Renewable-resources-must-to-counter-energy-crisis
LOAD SHEDDING: PART OF CONSPIRACY
Pakistan is facing multivariate problems nowadays; price-hike, wheat crisis and unending load shedding are among the top most problems. Load shedding is a serious issue as it not only hampers the domestic, business and industrial activities but also spoils one's mood, even one's behavior. Pakistan experiences serious power-shortage resulting in serious power deficit that hampers not only the development process but also poses serious threat to national growth. Heavy load shedding of power across Pakistan creates major problems especially for all categories of users. The most affected user of electricity under this crisis is the households followed by industrial users. In the past development plans focusing on electrification of villages, power connection to new industrial units and to agricultural producers were put on hold till power installation and generation was undertaken. Rapid rise in population and increase in number of households and its demand for electricity was not fully accounted in development plans. That's why now the production and supply is too low according to the demand. Lack of proper power policy and planning evolves major area that requires government's initiative. The countrywide load shedding has proved the inefficiency, mismanagement and governance issues related to policies and practices of our successive governments.
Allah has blessed our country with natural resources that can be utilized to create electricity. We have plenty of wind and sunshine to create
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 61
energy from them, but it will take political will on part of our government as well as politicians to invest in for the country's better future. We have thermal power base electricity. Though Pakistan is well endowed with water resources, yet hardly any development projects have been visualized. Apart from lack of development, the province also suffers from manipulations. The present energy crisis in the country is because we have failed to build large dams. Water is rapidly becoming one of the defining crises of the 21st century. We have two conspiracies related to water shortage in the country. One is national conspiracy and the other is international one.
National conspiracy is that our provinces blamed each other for water related crisis for example Sindh attributing the scarcity to theft and wasteful use by Punjab. After that Sindh traditionally has had two complaints against Punjab – one that in the dry season, when Sindh needs water, Punjab does not release enough downstream; and during floods, when Sindh does not need water, Punjab flushes out surplus water downstream. The Kalabagh Dam is also under this controversial approach. The other is international conspiracy related to Pakistan's water resources that United States and India spoiling Pakistan's water resources they don't won't Pakistan to have much resources to combating its energy crisis.
They create hurdles for Pakistan in this regard. United state indulging Pakistan to its security related problems in Tribal Areas and diverting Pakistan's attention towards major issues related to energy and India committing itself to theft Pakistan's water resources which comes to India here is the example of Baglihar Dam. Recently Government of Pakistan pays attention to that crisis and takes different measures to tackle that crisis. Government made an agreement of "Nelam power project" of about 130 millions. This agreement is between Pakistan, America and Norway. On Pakistani side this is on WAPDA and NEEPAK.
This would be completed with the help of China. It generates 969 megawatt of electricity. 15-18 thousands of thermal electricity would be produced in upcoming five years. Government makes sure that the work would be started on Kalabagh Dam. The work would be started on Bhasha Dam next year which generate four and a half thousand megawatt electricity. On short term basis government also take different actions like Markets and Shopping Malls would be closed at 9 o clock. Bill boards would be closed. Holiday should be on Friday. In governmental offices air conditioners would be started at 11 O' clock. Energy savers would be used. So through these steps we can reduce the consumption of electricity. But this could be on short term basis in order to solve this issue of load shedding we need a permanent solution though constructing more power plants. It may surprise to see that over the last 8 or 9 years there hasn't been A SINGLE MEGAWATT increase in generation capacity.
62 IPRI Factfile
So on long term basis we need the national strategy to address the crises focuses to make use of all options to meet the current and future power requirements. This included hydro, thermal and nuclear sources. Several thermal powers were installed which resulted in two problems: import of fuel to meet power generation requirements, and resultant significant rise in power generation cost and cost to user shot up manifolds. Hydropower generation was strongly advocated to not only supplement power generation but also at a much lower cost. For thermal power we need to have more water resources like Dams and rivers etc.
Over the years we have neglected other sources. Take coal for example, Pakistan has the 7th largest coal reserve in the world (in Thar area) and we only produce 0.2% of electricity from it! Coal is one of the cheapest ways to produce electricity, that's why countries like Australia produce 77% of their electricity from coal. And please don't give me the crap about pollution, because work is being done to make it as pollution free as possible.
We are one of the few declared nuclear States of the world, yet we produce a fraction of power from nuclear as other countries do. We can use our nuclear power in peaceful means or purposes mainly in generating electricity. Then after that there is solar (and every part of Pakistan has abundant sunlight throughout the year), the Government can encourage people to install solar water heating and solar photovoltaic on their rooftop. And we must also not forget wind, out neighbour India is the world's 4th largest wind power producer in the world!!! Shocking, it's it, but alas, none of our governments has seriously looked into it, therefore Pakistani people are being blessed with the gift of load shedding with the advent of New Year! So, where does a GDP of 8% stand?
So our government's paramount objective must be to provide adequate facilities for the generation, transmission, and distribution of electrical energy keeping in view the future power requirements for the industrial, agricultural and economic development of the country.
Fozia Shahnaz, Pak Observer, May 23, 2008
http://pakobserver.net/200805/23/Articles04.asp
COAL POWER PLANTS TO HELP OVERCOME ENERGY CRISIS
A high-powered World Bank delegation, led by Vice President for South Asia Region, Praful C Patel, held a meeting with Chief Minister Sindh Syed Qaim Ali Shah at Chief Minister House here on Monday.
In the meeting Chief Minister informed the delegation that present government will fully implement the party manifesto and address to problems of people in the education, energy and environment sectors besides unemployment on priority basis.
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 63
He appreciated the World Bank's assistance program, particularly in education, water, health and power sectors.
He said that Shaheed Quaid Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto had initiated a eight billion dollars power project for Sindh to generate 5000 MW of electricity, but the same, in later governments was left unattended with the result that not only the countty but Sindh province specially suffered where industrial sector was badly affected. Chief Minister spotlighted the importance of Thar Coal reserves and stressed that with coal based power plants, the power crisis in the country will be solved. He said the project will also help overcome un-employment and bring prosperity and development in the area.
The WB Vice President for South Asia Region, said that WorId Bank will fully assist in projects for of furtherance of education, strengthening and improving Irrigation system in Sindh and also support other sectors like health etc.
He said that previously, project under Sindh Development Forum was launched in the year 2001 and now a similar programme will be revived so as to achieve the targets of development in Sindh. Senior Minister Education Pir Mazharul Haq informed that Sindh province lags behind in the education & health sectors, specially in rural areas.
Chief Secretary Fazal-ur-Rehman emphasized the need for paying attention on social sector together with special attention towards power generation.
World Bank team stressed the need for ensuring progress of community as other schemes are also implemented on matching grants with community/Government of Sindh to bear 50% expenses of the projects.
The meeting was attended by Additional Chief Secretary Nazar Hussain Maher, Secretary Finance Ghulam Ali Pasha, Secretary Health Shafique Ahmed Khoso, Secretary Education Rizwan Memon, Secretary Irrigation & Power Shuja Junejo, Secretary (Services) Iqbal Durrani, Secretry Mines & Mineral Younis Dhaga and other senior officials.
The Nation, May 26, 2008
http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Business/27-May-2008/Coal-power-plants-to-help-overcome-energy-crisis
GOVT TO ENSURE INDISCRIMINATE LOAD SHEDDING: PM
Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani Friday said the government would ensure that load shedding was done judiciously and without discrimination, and people in remote areas were not unduly suffered. Talking to a delegation
64 IPRI Factfile
of representatives belonging to different walks of life, he said it would be ensured that load shedding is shared equitably and fairly by different parts of the country.
He called upon the people to observe conservation measures and support government's 100-day programme which focuses on better management of existing resources to overcome energy shortage in the country.
The Prime Minister said that the government is fully aware of the hardships being faced by the people.
Despite unenviable economic conditions, the government has taken several measures to improve the lot of the common man and rid them of the wheat and electricity shortages, he added. …
APP, May 30, 2008
http://www.app.com.pk/en_/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=39856&Itemid=2
PAKISTAN PUTS CLOCKS FORWARD, HOPES TO SAVE ELECTRICITY
Pakistan put its clocks forward an hour on Sunday while shops have been ordered to close early as the country struggles with an acute electricity shortage.
Setting clocks forward by an hour, to six hours ahead of GMT, should enable the country to take advantage of an extra hour of daylight in the evenings and save power.
Shopping centers have also been ordered to close at 9 p.m. (1500 GMT) from Sunday while government offices have been told not to turn on the air conditioning for the first three hours of the working day.
Pakistan tried moving to daylight saving time in 2002, but abandoned it as many people, particularly in rural areas, ignored the switch.
Some people doubted the time change would work this time.
"It's bound to fail. Half the people aren't aware of it and the other half don't care," said Adnan Hadi, a television producer in the southeastern city of Multan.
Pakistan is grappling with a shortfall of 4,500 MW of power and throughout the country electricity is cut, usually for an hour at a time, several times a day.
Water and Power Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf said on the weekend the government planned to overcome power shortages within a year by generating an extra 6,000 MW.
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 65
He did not elaborate on how the extra power would be generated but officials have said Pakistan hoped to import second-hand generating equipment.
Power cuts, as well as food shortages and inflation, have fuelled anger and contributed to a landslide opposition victory in a February general election.
Early this year, the government shut steel melting units across the country for two weeks and ordered hundreds of textile mills to reduce operations to cope with the power shortage.
In April, textile workers staged violent protests against power cuts that have crippled their mills.
Pakistan's installed capacity is about 19,845 MW, of which about one-third is produced by hydro-electric plants. Much of the rest is generated by thermal stations, fuelled primarily by gas and oil.
But no new capacity has been installed for the past decade despite strong growth and rising demand for power.
China Post, June 2, 2008
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/asia/pakistan/2008/06/02/159152/Pakistan-puts.htm
THE OPTION FOR SOLAR POWER
For Pakistan, 2008 will prove to be a long and hot summer. In April, some of the major cities were being put through six hours of load shedding every day. In May, power interruptions had increased to seven hours a day. Another hour may be added in June. Some relief may come in July as the reservoirs begin to be filled up by the monsoon rains but once the dry season arrives, the duration of load shedding will begin to increase again.
The government estimates the supply-demand gap at 4000 MW. This is not likely to be cut down since no new generation capacity is in the works for at least another one to two years. In the meantime, the price of oil continues to increase. New records are being set almost every day. This will increase the cost of generating electricity since a significant amount of power is generated by oil-fired stations. How to deal with this problem?
The question has some urgency as there are serious economic and social costs for letting the energy shortage go unaddressed. For some inexplicable reasons Pakistan never treated the energy sector as deserving of serious attention by the policymakers. The sector was an area of residual concern even when the country treated economic planning and strategising on economic issues as high priorities area for the policymakers. Power houses at Mangla and Tarbela were the byproducts of the Indus Water Treaty with India. The decision to invite the private sector to invest in energy generation was taken in the early 1990s when the country was faced with a growing supply-
66 IPRI Factfile
demand gap. In other words, the policymakers have turned to the sector of energy only when opportunities have arisen as a result of other developments or when there is a serious crisis. There is a crisis at this time. How will Islamabad react?
This may be a good time to develop a comprehensive approach towards the sector, factoring in policies aimed at affecting demand, supply and environmental concerns. In looking at supply, the country should seriously examine alternative sources for generating electricity than those that have been tried in the past. In this context is solar energy a serious option for Pakistan? Have the recent technological advances achieved by the industrial world made the sun a viable source of energy for a sun-drenched country such as Pakistan? If the technology that converts solar energy into electric power still more expensive than other sources of energy could subsidies be provided to attract private investment into this sector?
Some recent developments in converting solar power into electricity have begun to provide some answers to these questions. Surprisingly the answers come from the work being done in Germany. It is useful to look at the German experience to draw some lessons for Pakistan. Although Germany is wreathed in clouds and is therefore an unlikely candidate for becoming a pioneer in this field, it has become a leader because of the design of public policy to encourage the use of the sun as a source for generating electricity.
In 2007, Q-Cells, a German company surpassed Sharp, a Japanese company, to become the world's largest manufacturer of photovoltaic solar cells. Thanks to the work done by Q-Cells, Germany has by far the largest market for photovoltaic systems which convert sunlight into electricity. It has about one-half of the world's total installations. It is the third-largest producer of solar cells and modules, after China and Japan. Once the United States and Japan were the rising solar stars where the private sector was taking advantage of government subsidies. But these became less enticing as the government's interest in developing the industry waned.
According to Mark Landler writing for The New York Times, "the debate over solar subsidies is a test of how an environmentally minded country can move from nurturing a promising alternative energy sector to creating a mass-market industry that can compete with conventional energy sources on its own footing. [But] it is a tricky transition, even with a sympathetic population." Thanks to a policy that encouraged the development of solar energy, more than 40,000 people now work in the photovoltaic industry in Germany. Investors have come in from many countries including those from Canada, Norway and the United States. Many investors have come from the places that had developed the needed technology but where the governments were less supportive than the one in Germany.
All the heart of the debate in Germany is the Renewable Energy Sources Act which requires power companies to buy all the energy produced
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 67
by alternative systems, not only solar but also wind and ocean waves at a fixed, above-market price for 20 years. This has proved to be powerful incentive for investors including those working with solar panels. The Act locked in the customer base for the electricity produced by alternative systems. They can earn reliable returns on their investment. The amount of electricity generated by these systems rose 60 per cent in 2007 compared with 2006. Most of the increase has come from wind systems, which now provide 6.4 per cent for the total electricity produced in Germany.
The share of solar energy is still very small – only 0.6 percent of the total. The small share of solar is understandable. The country gets only 1,528 hours of sunshine a year, less than a third of the total daylight hours. London has about the same exposure to the sun, but it has one third fewer sunshine hours than in the cities in Europe along the Mediterranean and one-half of the cities in western United States. Most cities in Pakistan receive between 2,200 and 2,500 hours of sun, 60 to 70 per cent more than that of Germany.
Germany is a good example of how public policy can overcome natural disadvantages. The Renewable Energy Sources Act has contributed to the country's far lower dependence on hydrocarbons for generating electricity. In 2007, it derived 14.2 per cent of its electricity from renewable sources, ahead of the 12.5 percentage adopted by the European Union as a target.
The German Act, while mandating the utilities to buy the electricity generated by alternative systems, allows them to pass on the additional cost to the consumers. There is no limit on how much electricity can (or should) be purchased by the utilities from the alternative systems. This has caused utility bills to increase but for the time being by modest amounts for an average domestic consumer. The additional cost was only $1.70 a month in 2007. This will double by 2014. By that time the solar industry will scale up to $185 billion in terms of public support. This is about the same amount being provided to the superannuated coal industry.
The debate about the cost of solar and other renewable sources of energy has created pressures on the government to make the current law less generous. There are proposals to cut down the period over which subsidies would be provided, from the current 20 to 15 years. There is also as effort to sharply reduce the above-market price allowed to the producers. Fears that such proposals would be enacted into law, are forcing some Germany companies to move to other countries. Signet is building its next factory in Chennai, India; Q-Cells is building one in Malaysia.
What are the lessons for Pakistan in the German experience and the work being done in other industrial countries? One, Pakistan needs a structure of incentives to get power generated from such renewable sources as the sun. A purchase price guaranteed for a fairly long period that ensures good returns to the private sector would help. Two, this may be a good time to encourage the development of domestic industry that would produce the needed
68 IPRI Factfile
equipment for developing generating electricity from renewable sources. The technologies are still in their infancy and there is an opportunity for newcomers in the area to create niches for themselves. Some work is going to replace silicon in photovoltaic cells with plastics.
At this time, the efficiency of plastic photovoltaic cells is only five per cent while that of conventional silicon cells is 15 to 18 per cent. Even countries such as Pakistan could invest in the industries needed to develop alternative sources for generating electric power. Three, it may be an appropriate time to fix some targets for encouraging the use of renewable sources for generating power. The EU is working on a target of 12.5 per cent. In the United States, the two candidates for the Democratic ticket want renewable energy to generate 25 per cent of electricity by 2030.
This is the time for action by the government and it should look at all possible avenues for solving the current crisis.
Shahid Javed Burki, Dawn, June 2, 2008
http://www.dawn.com/2008/06/02/ebr8.htm
ADVANCING OF CLOCKS CREATES CONFUSION
First of June was perhaps a very confusing day in the lives of the people as everything went almost haywire after the smaller hand of clock was forwarded one hour.
On June 1, the clocks jumped an hour ahead to save the day light time and extract the maximum possible work potential but it brought a lot of confusion and inconvenience for the people of the country in general and the citizens of the Provincial Metropolis in particular.
The list of confusions is considerably long since the people are not yet tuned up to the required level to except such 'innovative & noble' ideas as yet.
It needs a most of prior practice and a complete step-by-step-campaign to get the people acclimatized with any new idea, but as usual, this 'brilliant' figment of a very scientific mind was shoved down the throat of the people without assessing the ground realities in a land where the literacy rate is still under 23% even after six decades of independence.
Saturday, 1st of June was a day in the history of Pakistan which had no mid night. Throughout the country the clocks directly jumped to 1 am immediately after 11 pm.
All daylong women, men and specially children spent all their day waiting for the 'fateful hour' when they will witness a unique happening. And while waiting anxiously for the night all eyes were regularly gazing on their watches and clocks religiously.
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 69
The most frequent questions asked by the kids were" What will happen to their school time tables? Will the van driver who picks and drops them also know about this change of time?
Thousands of students appearing in the Lahore Board's Secondary School Examination were utterly confused whether they would go for exams according to which time table since the board officials never bothered to send a public service message to this effect in the media.
The parents had to face confusion when they were making preparations for sending their children to school.
Many Lahorites were of the view that the government should have taken initiatives to overcome the prevalent power crisis instead of forcing the whole nation to change the small hand of their watches an hour ahead. They argued that the people would have to change their daily schedules in a bid to maximum utilization of the sunlight energy. They urged the government to kick-start energy-related projects without any procrastination.
The mindless load shedding in the city, a permanent irritant in the lives of the people of Pakistan now, made this otherwise a productive and positive initiative on the part of the government, a miserable addition in the lives of the people. No sooner the clock struck midnight, the lights in various parts of the city went out due to the on-going load shedding. This was something not accounted for by the already anticipating public which had overlooked this 'peace time blackout'. Many household were found groping in the dark for a candle since they had ignored this 'after effect' of modernity completely.
The other pinching aspect of the time change was the devastating effect of the load shedding the scorching heat since the clocks had gone forward which also 'saved the heat of the sun' and the sizzling day seemed quite long on 1st June to the poor folks.
The people habitual to say their five times prayers in mosques were also found confused. The patients who had appointments with the doctors also faced difficulties to get adjusted to the new 'timings'.
All said and done, the people were of the view that every good thing is not necessarily 'good' for every society since a society has to be brought to a certain level of awareness before being introduced to an innovative idea. However, it is also felt by some segments of the society that by extending the time to another hour there will be an excessive hourly advantage for all those who know how to make good use of their time in productive and positive manner.
Shahab Ansari, The News, June 2, 2008
http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=116166
70 IPRI Factfile
IRAN CAN HELP PAKISTAN IN ENERGY SECTOR
Iranian Ambassador to Pakistan Mashallah Shakri has said his resource rich country can help Pakistan address its energy crisis in the long run.
Talking to this correspondent here, he said Tehran can initiate ventures with Pakistan other than the IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India) gas project to help Islamabad overcome its power crisis.
He said there were many fields of mutual interest especially in the culture, energy, shipping and trade sectors in which both the countries can expand relations. He said Pakistan had good manpower for shipping industry while Iran possessed good fleet and if the two countries formed a joint shipping company it would help enhance trading in the shipping sector.
He said by expanding rail network, Pakistan could export its fruits, especially orange and mangoes, to Turkey via Iraq.
He said Pakistan produced two million tons of good quality kinnos that could be exported through rail network to Iran and Turkey.
Responding a question, he said both Pakistan and Iran were bounded in centuries-old relations due to similarities in their cultural, religious and social traditions.
He said with expansion of economic, trade and tourists activities these relations could be further expanded and strengthened.
Dawn, June 3, 2008
http://www.dawn.com/2008/06/03/nat2.htm
SAARC MEMBERS ASKED TO SIGN ENERGY TREATY
Energy experts from Japan and member states of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc) Wednesday proposed the signing of an 'Energy Charter Treaty' to promote regional cooperation in energy sector.
In their recommendations on the conclusion of the two-day Japan-SAARC Symposium on Energy and Connectivity, the participants said Japan and Saarc member states should expedite energy cooperation in the region, with greater sense of urgency, recognising the tremendous energy resource potential, and vital role of energy in economic, social, human development and poverty reduction.
They said the Saarc member states for this purpose should continue to make use of the technical assistance from bilateral and multilateral sources for capacity building, technology transfer, energy efficiency and specific project formulation. Information on progress, technical know-how, needs, barriers and possible solutions must be mutually shared by the states.
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 71
According to the experts, Japan and Saarc members should continue the dialogue for possible means and cooperation to improve regional connectivity in energy sector.
They said efforts should be made for fostering private and public partnership, Research and Development; and cooperation with academics, civil society and the media.
They were of the view that priority areas of energy cooperation in the Saarc region included energy infrastructure development, regional trade of energy, sharing of hydroelectric resources and demand-side management.
They stressed that the parties engaged in the current projects for constructions of gas pipelines connecting one or more Saarc countries to external energy sources in the region urgently address outstanding issues.
The participants said Japan and Saarc member should make efforts to promote public awareness of the need for regional energy cooperation, adding that programmes and activities of Saarc Energy Centre should be strongly supported through provision of human, financial, infrastructural, technical and material resources.
They said Saarc member states should consider establishing an inter-governmental framework for implementing the agreed programme of action in energy cooperation.
The symposium was jointly organised by the Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad, and the Government of Japan, and was attended by the energy experts and some government officials from Bangladesh, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Japan and the Saarc Energy Centre, as well as audiences invited from various sectors in Islamabad.
Speaking at the concluding session of the symposium, Ismail Qureshi, secretary Water and Power, said that energy sources in Saarc region and its neighbours were huge, unevenly distributed and undeveloped. Cross-border investments in energy and promotion of regional energy trade are essential for achieving economic growth of the Saarc countries. The factors curtailing such regional cooperation are political tension, poor infrastructure and poor operational efficiency, he added.
Dawn, June 12, 2008
http://www.dawn.com/2008/06/12/nat9.htm
SUBSIDY ON USE OF UP TO 200 POWER UNITS STAYS
Minister for Water and Power Raja Pervaiz Ashraf on Monday said that the government would not withdraw subsidy on electricity up to 200 units to give relief to poor people.
Talking to journalists here, the minister said only the privileged class using over 200 electricity units would share the burden while the deprived
72 IPRI Factfile
segment will be given subsidy. He said the country is facing severe power crisis and the government was taking short, medium and long-term measures to combat the menace of load-shedding.
He said load-shedding hours would be reduced within a few days as 1,500MW additional power has been added to the system due to sincere efforts of the government to overcome the situation.
The minister added additional power generation has been achieved through system optimisation. Pervaiz Ashraf said that Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani has approved an amount to bear expenditures on oil supply to thermal power plants for smooth functioning.
He said a major chunk of the export-oriented industry has been exempted from load-shedding while power supply is also being increased to other sectors. He added in order to give boost to the agriculture sector 10 hours continuous power supply is being provided at night to get maximum production while the textile industry is also being provided 100 per cent supply of power.
He said power-looms are also being provided continuous spells of power to increase productivity, as this export-oriented industry is a major contributor to foreign exchange reserves. The minister said sufficient amount has been allocated in the budget for the water and power sector keeping in view the increasing demand in these sectors.
He said due to the energy conservation plan additional power is being received while the government is also planning to get electricity from alternative and renewable energy resources. Earlier, in an open kutchery the minister received applications from applicants and issued orders to the concerned officials on the spot.
Addressing the party workers and applicants, the minister said Pakistan Peoples Party's government is committed to resolving the problems of country's people. He said government would change the life of common man by giving basic amenities of life.
The News, June 17, 2008
http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=118835
LOAD SHEDDING BECOMES A NIGHTMARE FOR KARACHIITES
The Karachiites continue to suffer with prolonged power outage while riots erupted in various areas on Tuesday.
The temperature of the City has increased up to 37C as Karachiites suffered with sizzling heat till the evening and also faced unannounced load shedding in several localities.
Inhabitants of various localities act violently against the KESC officials and showed anger in many areas. In Lyari and Chakiwara, people
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 73
protested against KESC and burnt tyres on the roads. The Lyariites were suffering with 12 to 15 hours long power outage due to some technical cable faults in the area. The residents of FB Area, Shah Faisal Colony, Malir, Liaquatabad, PECHS, Gulshan-e-Iqbal, FC Area, Akhtar Colony, Mehmoodabad, Punjab Colony, DHA, and Gulistan-e-Johar also claimed of suffering 10 to 12 hours long load shedding. Life has become a nightmare, said Hassan Gul from Golden Town. "The frequent load shedding has not only made our lives gloomy but has also disturbed the routine life. The worst affected are children, especially toddlers. Even students are suffering as they can't study for their ongoing examinations," he said.
The situation was synonymous with the conditions in Mansehra Colony and Landhi. Khurram Amman, a resident, said that the entire locality, comprising of over 50,000 residents, was facing three hours load shedding for more than three times a day. "The entire locality belonged to middle class people, living in small houses. Most of the houses have no proper ventilation system thus load shedding brings severe problems for them," he said. "KESC should pay more attention to the slums as people living in the City's affluent areas can afford generators."
Furthermore, the power breakdowns didn't affect residents alone, but also affected the workers of different industrial zones. "Most of the industrial units were forced to leave workers early due to power disturbance. But workers have been asked to come in on Sunday and thus they are paying the price for KESC's bungles," Iqbal Khan, an electrician at a cloth mill in Site Industrial Area said.
The total demand of electricity has reached to 2500MW in the city due to the increasing temperature and KESC was lagging behind with 400 to 500MW. KESC had earlier announced five hours load shedding but committing 8 to 9 hours load shedding in various localities. KESC could not overcome the technical faults across the city and compelled the inhabitants to come on roads in protest against power outage.
Meanwhile, two units of Bin Qasim power plant remained close due to some technical faults and as far as restoration of supply from the units is concerned it would take three to four more days while the supply from KANNUP also couldn't be restored.
The Nation, June 18, 2008
http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Regional/Karachi/18-Jun-2008/Loadshedding-becomes-a-nightmare-for-Karachiites
74 IPRI Factfile
SEVERE FUEL CRISIS HITS FRONTIER
Severe fuel crisis has hit the NWFP, as around 90 per cent of the filling stations have been closed down due to the acute shortage of diesel.
The diesel shortage continued in the province for several days, forcing most of the transporters to park their vehicles in their homes. Long queues of vehicles were seen outside petrol pumps Wednesday to get a few litres of diesel.
A few filling stations where the commodity was available in a limited quantity, sold it at Rs60 per litre against its official price of Rs52.Transport owners opined that the main cause of petroleum products shortage in the province was massive smuggling of the POL product to Afghanistan where minimum price of diesel is Rs75 per litre. The filling station owners have also expressed serious concern over the shortage of POL, saying that it has seriously affected their business.
The Sarhad Petroleum Cartage and Dealers Association Wednesday voiced concern over petroleum products' growing smuggling to Afghanistan, saying 90 per cent of the filling stations have been closed down due to non-availability of the petroleum products.
"The government pays huge amount to make the petroleum products available on subsidised rates to compensate the poverty-stricken citizens but the facility is not being availed by them after huge smuggling of subsidised petroleum to Afghanistan," SPCDA chairman Mansoor Sharif told a press conference here.
He said the filling stations of Pakistan State Oil (PSO), Shell and Caltex companies across the province have 2.5 million litres per-day requirement. However, the growing smuggling to Afghanistan reduced receipt of petroleum products to the oil companies to about 0.7 million litres.
He held the Khyber Agency political administration responsible for the continued smuggling of petroleum products to Afghanistan, which, he said, allowed the smugglers to take the product across the border.
Mansoor also said the previous government had issued marketing licences to 'ghost companies' which had no storage depot and proper offices. "These ghost companies get fuel on fake invoices and smuggle it through their agents, therefore, the government should take action against such companies," he urged.
He said the owners of the filling stations were faced with multiple problems and worried about the future of their multi-millions businesses. He called upon NWFP governor, chief minister and political administration to take serious note of the fuel smuggling to Afghanistan via Khyber Agency to ensure availability of its required quantity in the filling stations.
Qaiser Khan Afridi, The News, June 19, 2008
http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=119363
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 75
SHORTAGE OF FUEL AT PETROL PUMPS CAUSING CONCERN
There was a shortage of petrol and diesel at various petrol pumps in the city on Thursday. Petrol pump officials said the reason for the shortage was that they were not receiving any supplies. A Cavalry Grounds petrol pump employee said that a shortage was persisting and therefore supplies to end users were not materialising. The petrol pumps in Cavalry Grounds, Garden Town, Model Town and other areas closed operations temporarily. Punjab Petroleum Dealers Association President Majeed Malik said that oil companies had reduced supplies to dealers and it was causing problems. He said that the government owed billions of rupees to the oil companies and this had created problems for the end users. "The oil companies have reduced supplies by 50 percent, as they claim that they have not been paid for their product," he added. Majeed said that the government should come to the aid of users otherwise the shortage could cause huge problems for the people.
Daily Time, June 20, 2008
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008%5C06%5C20%5Cstory_20-6-2008_pg13_5
SHORTAGE OF PETROL PRODUCTS TORMENTING CONSUMERS
Several petrol pumps, affiliated with different Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), have stopped selling oil products in the city due to the shortage of supply since the last couple of days.
The shortages of oil products at petrol pumps have caused consumers to suffer, particularly in those areas where the petrol pumps are in limited numbers. Besides Karachi, the supply shortage has been reported in other cities of Sindh and NWFP.
Many petroleum dealers said that they have not been receiving oil products from OMCs since last week that created petroleum shortage at the pumps. They were reluctant to provide any details on this issue and passed blamed the OMCs.
A couple of weeks earlier, President Petroleum Dealers Association Abdul Sami Khan had already warned the possible shortage at several petrol pumps as according to him, the OMCs were not providing them enhanced products' when the demand was high.
Some dealers also warned that their oil stocks have been diminished and left for a couple of days. The supply should be resumed by the OMCs because the demand of diesel and petrol has surged on the petrol pumps on the back of shutting of other outlets and enhanced usage in power generators.
76 IPRI Factfile
Normally, petrol pumps have a storage capacity of 20 to 25 days in the oil tanks.
However, the shortage has been predicated to continue in the coming days because OMCs, particularly Pakistan State Oil (PSO), claimed that they have been facing diesel supply constraints from refineries.
PSO said that private run-pump owners or dealers affiliated with other OMCs have been demanding oil products to the state-run OMC that caused supply shortage even on its own petrol pumps. It said the share of PSO has increased to 71 percent of the total market share in June as compared to last month's share recorded at 59 percent.
The supply from refineries has been reduced in the past few days that caused interruption in supply chain and would take time to come back on track, an official said on condition of anonymity.
Spokesman of Shell Pakistan Limited (SPL) Abid Syed Ibrahim said the OMCs continue constant supply to its affiliated dealers throughout the country and it has stopped products' supply to those dealers who did not clear their advance payments to OMCs.
Muhammad Yasir, Daily Times, June 22, 2008
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008%5C06%5C22%5Cstory_22-6-2008_pg5_4
NO END TO ELECTRICITY METER SHORTAGE
Shortage of domestic electricity metres continued in the provincial capital as the management of Lahore Electric Supply Company (LESCO) failed to procure the most necessary item on time.
Sources in the company claimed that more than 30,000 applications for the issuance of new electricity metres were pending with the company. Sources said the shortage was a direct result of lack of vision and future planning of the management especially the high-ups.
Sources said that the shortage of domestic metres, electricity cable and transformers started some five months back and since then the company was failed to procure these most necessary items. Shortage of these items clearly exposed the claims of the LESCO that it was investing a huge sum on improving its infrastructure and better customer services for the last two years.
The shortage of metres has created serious inconvenience to those who have deposited their money to the LESCO for replacement of metres or for getting new connections. A number of complainants termed the shortage a criminal negligence on part of the company. They said the LESCO was already known for disturbing its consumers in one way or the other and presently the general perception of the people about the company was that the officer class
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 77
of the company was not purchasing metres and transformers because they have not gotten a 'good deal' from the manufacturers.
Most of the applicants urged the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA), Pakistan Electric Power Company (PEPCO) and Federal Minister for Water and Power to hold an inquiry into the issue.
Whoever is responsible for this should be punished, said Khurram, a resident of Faisal Town. He said he applied for a new connection some three months back but still he was going to the sub division every day to get a metre. He said many others were also running pillar to post to get new metres in the same sub division.
Following the shortage, the LESCO field staff is openly exploiting the applicants and minting money from them for getting them metres early. A senior LESCO official, on the condition of anonymity, said that every sub-division needed average 500 electricity metres per month but presently the company was providing them with four to five metres per week.When contacted, the call on the mobile phone of LESCO Chief Executive Akram Arain was not attended. The company's PRO admitted that the shortage was going on. He said it would be overcome within weeks.
The News, June 23, 2008
http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=119965
PESHAWAR TRANSPORTERS THREATEN TO BESIEGE OIL DEPOTS
Transporters claim pumps are selling the commodity at R s65/liter
Local transporters Monday threatened to besiege oil depots and filling stations in Peshawar if the authorities failed to take prompt and effective measures to overcome the prolonged "artificial" diesel crisis in the province.
Expressing his concern over the continued diesel shortage in the province, president of public transport owners association (legal) Haji Ihsanullah said 50% of the transport-vehicle owners have parked their vehicles in their homes due to prevailing shortage. He added the petrol pump owners were fleecing by selling the commodity to them at Rs 65 per liter against its official price of Rs 50, while the authorities were taking no action against them.
Haji alleged the pump owners had a daily quota of getting 10,000 liters of diesel, but they were purchasing only 4000 and selling the remaining quota to the depots that smuggle it to Afghanistan, where per liter price of the commodity is Rs 75.
Jehangir Afridi, another leader of local transporters, said the diesel smuggling to Afghanistan was continued unabated without any check on it. He
78 IPRI Factfile
lamented the increase in the price of CNG, saying despite the fact that CNG was produced in the country, its price was showing upward trend.
He demanded of the authorities to take effective measures to control smuggling, otherwise, they would be compelled to besiege the petrol pumps and oil depots and the authorities would be responsible for consequences.
It merits a mention here that Frontier was faced with acute shortage of diesel for the past two weeks. The vehicle owners had to struggle hard to get some liters of the commodity on higher price.
Abdur Rasheed, a private car owner, said he visited more than ten pumps to get some diesel, where he was told that it was not available. At last in one of the pumps, the owner agreed to give limited quantity at Rs 60/liter while its official price was Rs 50. Due to diesel crisis and unofficial increase in its price, the long route transporters have also increased fares, adding to the miseries of the commuters.
The News, June 24, 2008
http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=120209
DIESEL SHORTAGE AFFECTING OPERATION OF TUBE-WELLS, TRACTORS: FARMERS
The farmers are facing problems in running tube wells and tractors due to the shortage of diesel, Daily Times learnt Thursday.
The shortage of diesel mainly persists in Punjab province as the oil companies have stopped the supply of diesel to the petrol pumps, while the shortage would have a negative impact on the sowing of rice and cotton crops, the agriculture sector stakeholders said.
The sowing of rice is round the corner while cotton sowing is already going on in a number of districts. An extreme shortage of diesel was also witnessed in cotton growing areas of Southern Punjab in the last couple of days.
A spokesman of Farmers Association of Pakistan (FAP), Idrees Khokhar said the hoarders have done an artificial shortage of diesel to force the government to increase the prices of petroleum products and a summary has already been placed on the table of prime minister for approval.
"The farmers of Punjab were the main affectees due to the shortage of diesel and non-availability of diesel has shut down more than 0.7 million tube-wells while 0.5 million tractors have stopped".
He said the government should look into the matter otherwise the farmers will fail to continue their cultivation and the country may face shortage of every kind of crop, especially rice and wheat.
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 79
Chairman Agri Forum, Ibrahim Mughal said if the government failed to solve shortage of diesel issue, the farmers would fail to sow the rice in the coming sowing season.
It is sowing season of cotton in the southern Punjab areas and these two things are the backbone of agriculture farming and if these are not available then one can easily imagine what would be the future of crops.
The senior vice president of Punjab Petroleum Dealers Association, Chaudhry Muhammad Sadiq said the oil companies have stopped the supply of diesel to the petrol pumps.
He said the companies have strictly asked the owners of petrol pumps and dealers not to give diesel in drums and gallons, while the companies have also supply the diesel against the demand of the pump owners.
Hasan Ali, Daily Time, June 27, 2008
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008%5C06%5C27%5Cstory_27-6-2008_pg5_3
LOAD SHEDDING INCREASES AS KANUPP TRIPS AGAIN
The duration of load shedding suddenly increased from Wednesday night after the Karachi Nuclear Power Plant (KANUPP) suddenly tripped.
Flaws in the Karachi Electric Supply Company (KESC) transmission cables connected to KANUPP through the national grid caused the 80MW shortage. There was an additional shortage of 300 MW to 350 MW the same day.
The Pakistan Electric Power Company (PEPCO) is also experiencing some technical problems in its generation system, causing a shortage, a KESC general manager (GM) told Daily Times. "The PEPCO administration approached KESC with a request to accept a shortage of 100 MW for the time because of technical problems but the KESC management declined to accept this excuse."
The supply from PEPCO continued at 500 MW without any disruption till 11:00 a.m. Wednesday, until a shortage of 100 MW at around 1:00 p.m. However, KANUPP resumed its supply of 70 MW to KESC through the national grid by 10:30 p.m., Wednesday, described the GM. KANUPP tripped on May 19, 2008 as well for the same reason. There have been eight such incidents since January and last year it happened 11 times. "KANUPP had planned to increase its contribution, taking it to a peak of 90 MW in a few days, but the recent tripping has made this doubtful," the KESC GM said.
Reports from a private television channel late night Thursday said that two units at the Bin Qasim Thermal Power Plant had tripped due to a gas
80 IPRI Factfile
turbine leak. These reports are, however, incorrect as all six BQTPS are operating and generating around 1,050 MW, the KESC GM added.
Daily Times, June 27, 2008
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008%5C06%5C27%5Cstory_27-6-2008_pg7_27
FUEL STATIONS RUN SHORT OF DIESEL
Fuel stations have run short of diesel, putting motorists in a fix. A few stations, which have this commodity, are selling it only if a consumer agrees to buy mobile oil with it.
"Diesel is available only at 15-20 percent fuel stations but their owners are compelling motorists to buy mobile oil or any other commodity if they have to get diesel," Hanif Gujjar, a public transport driver, told Daily Times on Friday.
There are around 24 fuel stations in Islamabad and over 50 in Rawalpindi, where diesel is sold.
"It is really difficult to get diesel these days so I have minimised use of fuel in my car. Diesel shortage has been prevailing since revision of oil prices by OGRA last time," a motorist said.
Akbar Mian, manager of a fuel station in F-8 Markaz, said diesel supply at his station had come down from 14,000 litre to 7,000 litre a day.
"Diesel supply has been cut by half at Sihala and Chaklala for the last two weeks by oil marketing companies," he said. Ghulam Abbas, a worker at a petrol pump in Sector F-7, said diesel supply had been delayed for long.
Requesting not to be named, some fuel station operators said the government wanted to buy diesel from oil marketing companies at old rates while fuel prices have gone up in the international market.
They said the government had delayed payment of billions of rupees to oil companies.
"We want to install a diesel generator in the face of load shedding but we cannot run it because of diesel shortage," said a citizen.
Sale of petroleum products in open containers has been banned by the government to counter terrorism.
Atif Khan, Daily Time, June 28, 2008
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008%5C06%5C28%5Cstory_28-6-2008_pg11_11
FREQUENT POWER SHUTDOWNS BRINGING GRADES DOWN
* Students say they cannot study properly in dim light
* PU boarder says weather problems increase when there is no water
* Teachers say relief being given to students following power crisis
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 81
* Computer labs at GCU and LCWU closed down during load shedding
* Students not expecting good results owing to poor preparation
The hours-long load shedding in the city is giving a tough time to students, especially schoolchildren, during the ongoing examinations.
Students said that massive load shedding in the last few months had adversely affected their studies. They said that they could not study properly in the dim light and under hot and humid weather, as it gave them a headache and had affected their eyesight. Some students also said that their schools/colleges had power backup systems, but the systems were not being used. They said that they had been compelled to take classes and sit in examinations with no electricity in the rooms.
Students enrolled in semester system courses, especially those studying computers and other sciences, said that they had an extra burden of studies owing to the semester system. They said that they had to make presentations and submit term reports and assignments, which was impossible with no electricity in town. Teachers also said that they had problems giving lectures during load shedding.
The students of intermediate, preparing for their practicals, and others for the Pakistan Military Academy (PMA) and Central Superior Services (CSS) examinations have also denounced the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) and the government for not complying with the students' demand of uninterrupted supply of electricity.
A number of institutions in the city did not give summer holidays to their students, as they had switched to the semester systems and were conducting examinations. Institutes like the Lahore College for Women University (LCWU), Government College University (GCU), Forman Christian College University (FCCU), and the Punjab University (PU) are still open and holding exams. Moreover, the students of Kinnaird College, Beaconhouse National University and FAST National University of Computer and Emerging Sciences are still due at the institutes for their assignments and research works.
Zara, a student of BS (Honours) at the LCWU, said that semester examinations were ongoing at different departments of the university, and usually there was no electricity during the examination. "It becomes difficult to sit in the examination rooms due to the heat and poor light, but we cannot do anything about it," she said, adding that there were no power generators at the university to facilitate the student. She said that students were also having trouble preparing for the exams, as they could not frame a proper timetable for studies owing to unplanned and massive load shedding.
Water shortage: Jawaria Ahmed, a PU Hostels boarder, said that students had no choice but prepare for their exams in candlelight during load-
82 IPRI Factfile
shedding hours. "The situation gets worse when the hostels run out of water, as we are not allowed to go out in the nighttime," she said.
Adeel Anjum, a Ravian studying computer sciences, said that students in his department did most of their work on computers, but the administration of the GCU had issued orders to close the computer labs at the time of load shedding. "We have to prepare our assignments and need the Internet for that, but now the computer labs are often closed due to the load shedding and we have to suffer," he said, adding that late submission of assignments was also affecting their grades.
Tayyab Bhatti, preparing for his CSS exams, said that students taking the exams usually went to libraries for preparations, but now it had become difficult for them to focus on their studies due to frequent power failure as they could not sit in libraries for long hours without electricity and cooling system.
Facilitating students: BNU Communication Adviser Arfa Sarfraz said, "Although we have closed the university for summer holidays, students who have not submitted their research work are still coming," she said, adding that every second student had the excuse that he/she could not complete the research work due to load shedding. "I personally believe that students are suffering the most due to the energy crises."
Khansa Nazim, an LCWU faculty member, said, "The administration knows that students are disturbed due to load shedding. We have kept this thing in mind before setting up question papers," she said. She said that teachers had also been suffering for the last many months because they usually used projectors to deliver lectures, which they could not do properly at the time of load shedding.
Another teacher at the university said that the authorities there too had directed the computers and science departments to shut down computer labs and laboratories during load shedding out of fear of getting equipment damaged.
Expectations not high: Asim Khan, a GCU student, said that power failure had always been a problem for students, and that thousands of students in the city had taken their matriculation, intermediate, and bachelor examinations during load-shedding hours. He said that students could not prepare for their exams properly, due to which they were not expecting good results.
He said that the graph of quality education might fall due to energy crises. "Neither the students, nor the teachers are satisfied with their progress," he said.
An official of the Lahore College of Arts and Sciences (LACAS) said that students there had suffered a lot during examination days due to frequent power shutdowns. He said that parents were concerned about the progress of their children. "They have complained that students are unable to concentrate
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 83
on their studies due to hot and humid weather conditions," he said. He said that the school administration was trying to remove the parents' concern by installing UPS systems and generators at various branches of LACAS.
Adnan Lodhi, Daily Times, June 28, 2008
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008%5C06%5C28%5Cstory_28-6-2008_pg13_9
NEW ENERGY ORDER
BY bringing together the world's major oil producers and consumers in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia marked a turning point in the negotiations for a new global energy order that is emerging under the weight of soaring oil prices, which are driven by factors other than supply and demand.
"It could be asked whether the 140 dollars per barrel price can be negotiated between Opec (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries), the new actor, which is global capital, and the governments of the Group of Eight (industrial powers)," Víctor Poleo, a Venezuelan professor of graduate studies in the oil economy, commented to IPS.
On Thursday, crude oil prices broke through the 140-dollar a barrel barrier for the first time. The price of oil "can no longer be dictated by Opec, because a significant portion of the price would seem to obey market laws that are not its own," said Poleo.
Saudi Arabia perceives "the beginning of a transition stage to a new power order in the world energy system," he added. In Poleo's view, "the global energy system is witnessing the emergence of a new order. In the old one, under Opec, the level of prices hovered around 70 dollars a barrel; in the new system, the increase is of the same magnitude," and the decisions taken by Saudi Arabia "form part of the new talks."
The informal June 22 meeting of representatives of governments and the major oil companies in the Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah called for more investment in crude production, as well as greater transparency in oil markets, where futures trading is helping to drive prices up. Producer and consumer nations and companies will meet again in Madrid next week, at the 19th World Petroleum Congress, and in late 2008 in London.
Spain's Minister of Trade and Industry Miguel Sebastián said that "after enjoying 15 years of low prices, our economies have become addicted to oil, and the world is not prepared for the challenge of a steady rise in prices." Opec is made up of Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela, which account for over 75 per cent of global proven oil reserves.
Referring to the Jeddah meet, the Caracas newspaper El Nacional pointed out that the "father of Opec", Venezuelan lawyer Juan Pablo Pérez
84 IPRI Factfile
Alfonzo, proposed half a century ago the creation of an organisation of producers and consumers that would regulate the world oil market.
The corporations that controlled the oil business, known back then as the "seven sisters", scorned the proposal, and Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Venezuela went on to found Opec in 1960 in Baghdad.
At the time, Venezuela was the world's leading oil exporter, a position that was taken over and has been held for decades by Saudi Arabia, which sent from Jeddah a message to its fellow Opec members that it will not favour a rise in prices, as indicated by its unilateral decision to boost output from 9.5 to 9.7 million barrels a day as of July.
Meanwhile, Shokri Ghanem, the head of Libya's National Oil Corporation, said his country was studying the possibility of cutting output to protest a bill under debate in the US Congress that would empower the Justice Department to sue Opec members for limiting oil supplies.
Libya is also fighting a US law that allows the families of victims of state-sponsored terrorism to go to court and seek the seizure, as punitive damages and compensation, of any asset owned by the terrorist-sponsoring country, or of money from those governments that is held by US companies doing business with them. These remarks pushed prices up to a record high above 142 dollars a barrel by Friday.
Opec Secretary General Abdalla Salem el-Badri said the organisation planned to invest 160 billion dollars over the next five years to raise production by five million barrels a day. The members presently pump 32 million barrels a day, while global demand amounts to 86 million barrels.
US economist Joseph Stiglitz, winner of the 2001 Nobel Prize for economics, wrote earlier this month that "Only new patterns of consumption and production — a new economic model — can address that most fundamental resource problem. "Two factors set off today's crisis: the Iraq war contributed to the run up in oil prices, while biofuels have meant that food and energy markets are increasingly integrated," he added.
The big oil companies, in the meantime, are raking in tens of billions of dollars each. With these profits, said Poleo, global capital is financing its positioning with regard to the shifts occurring in the global energy scenario.
The price bubble continues to swell, to the benefit of these interests, although analysts say oil prices will inevitably come down.
Humberto Márquez, Dawn, June 30, 2008
http://www.dawn.com/2008/06/30/op.htm#top
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 85
POWER PLANTS TOP GAS SUPPLY PRIORITY LIST
The government has decided to give priority to the power sector in allocation of fresh gas supplies in view of the continuous rise in the oil import bill and the resultant increase in power tariffs.
Sources told Dawn that the decision was taken recently by the Economic Coordination Committee of the cabinet because of the increasing dependence on imported furnace oil for power generation and little progress made in the development of water and coal-based projects.
Pakistan had to pay about $13 billion on account of oil imports during the last financial year, and it is estimated to keep rising because of record oil prices in the international market. The government understands that if fresh gas arrivals are not dedicated to the power sector the oil import bill could touch $20 billion this financial year.
As a result, fresh gas supplies from new fields will not be available for domestic and commercial consumers. Under the existing petroleum policy, domestic and commercial consumers get the first priority, followed by fertiliser plants. Next on the priority list are gas supplies for independent power producers and gas utilities which have historic agreements for firm supplies, followed by the general industrial sector and compressed natural gas (CNG) stations.
Wapda, KESC and captive power plants, which did not have firm gas supply commitments, used to be on the fifth position and the cement sector was the last on the list.
The first priority now will be the power sector whenever gas supplies are available from new fields.
Likewise, gas from new fields which are not linked to the national transmission system is supplied to the fertiliser sector as a priority, followed by power companies having firm gas sale agreements. In this case too, the first priority will now be given to power plants.
At present, the power sector is the largest user of gas, accounting for a 33.5 per cent share, followed by the industrial sector with 23.8 per cent, households 18 per cent, fertiliser 15.6 per cent, transport 5.4 per cent and cement 0.9 per cent.
Last year, consumption of gas in the transport sector increased by 28 per cent, household consumption grew by12 per cent and fertiliser 3.5 per cent.
Consumption in the power sector declined by about 1.2 per cent as the previous government concentrated on providing gas connections to the domestic sector and promoting CNG for transport.
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Now the government is trying to put the CNG in the back seat along with the domestic sector to make sure that maximum supplies are made available for po0wer generation.
Khaleeq Kiani, Dawn, July 10, 2008
http://www.dawn.com/2008/07/10/top4.htm
RESOLVING POWER CRISIS A PRIORITY
The coalition government has undertaken a series of initiatives to steer the country out of the debilitating power crisis and the country will overcome electricity shortage within a couple of years.
In his first interaction with the ethnic media at the High Commission on Tuesday, the newly-appointed Pakistan High Commissioner Wajid Shamsul Hasan said the government was attaching top priority to resolving the power crisis.
He recalled that during the last government of Benazir Bhutto, the PPP government had invested $5 billion in the power sector, leading to the addition of 4,000 megawatts to the national grid.
Mr Hasan said since then not a single megawatt had been added to the grid which, according to him, had led to the present crisis.
He blamed former senator Saif-ur-Rehman for hounding out the foreign investors who were willing to invest further in the power sector in Pakistan.
On the exploration of Thar coal, he said during the rule of the last government, a Chinese company had written some 60 letters to the petroleum ministry but when no response was received, it withdrew from the country.
Dawn, July 10, 2008
http://www.dawn.com/2008/07/10/nat13.htm
AUTHORITY SET UP FOR THAR COAL MINING
The federal government has set up a provincial coal authority by abolishing two federal and provincial agencies to expedite mining and development of Thar and other coal deposits in Sindh.
A formal notification to this effect has been issued by the Prime Minister's Secretariat, technically empowering the provincial government to take all decisions relating to coal development and power generation in consultation with provincial and federal agencies.
Headed by Sindh chief minister, the authority will comprise the federal minister and secretary of water and power, a provincial minister, Sindh chief secretary and the managing director of the Thar Coal Authority.
Energy Crisis in Pakistan 87
The authority came into being after the abolition of the Sindh Coal Authority (SCA), a provincial agency, and Thar Coal Mining Company, a joint venture of federal and Sindh governments.
The authority will function as one-stop organisation on behalf of all ministries, departments and agencies of the federal and provincial governments for mining, development, leasing and sub-leasing of Thar coal area. It will also be responsible for development of clean coal technologies, research and development and gasification.
The authority will also be required to attract investment for coal mining and gasification in Thar and other areas in province for power generation.
A senior government official told Dawn that the federal government had "handed over" the development of Thar coal project to the Sindh government, mainly to expedite the setting up of a 1000MW coal-fired power plant.
He said hurdle delaying the project had been removed with the centre agreeing to a "supporting role" for itself in the $1.5 billion project and letting the Sindh administration "spearhead" and sort out all issues relating to the project.
He said the mining of Thar coal would cost $400 million and the power plant $1.1 billion. It will be an integrated power plant which will generate its first megawatt in six years. He regretted that the project could not be set up by the RWE company of Germany, Shenhua of China and Hasan Associated of Pakistan because they were demanding a tariff which kept on increasing from 5 cents to 9 cents for the development of each megawatt and that too without having any back-up data relating to the project.
Ihtasham ul Haque, July 10, 2008
http://www.dawn.com/2008/07/10/nat11.htm